Best in Energy – 28 November 2022

Brent futures prices revert to contango nearby

China cities see small but widespread protests

China lockdowns spark public protests ($BBG)

China tries to soften epidemic controls (trans.)

U.S. Treasury eases oil sanctions on Venezuela

Container freight rates slump ($WSJ)

Oil prices and the G7 price cap ($FT)

Oil prices and the G7 price cap ($WSJ)

BRENT’s six-month calendar spread has softened to a backwardation of less than $1 per barrel compared with more than $9 at the end of September and a peak of almost $22 in early March shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The spread between January and February 2023 has moved from backwardation into a small contango. Refiners and traders increased buying ahead of the planned introduction of the price cap in case it disrupts Russia’s crude exports, creating at least a temporary pause in new buying and putting pressure on the calendar spreads for nearby months:

THE NETHERLANDS was the fourth-largest gas consumer in the European Union in 2021 accounting for 11% of the total. The country’s gas consumption was down almost -33% in October 2022 compared with the prior ten-year seasonal average as a result of above-average temperatures, high prices, and energy conservation measures to reduce reliance on imported gas from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine:

CONTAINER shipping costs were down by more than -50% in November 2022 compared with the same month in 2021, as freight volumes fell and supply chain delays eased:

Published by

John Kemp

Energy analyst, public policy specialist, amateur historian