Best in Energy – 27 July 2022

[MUST READ] Germany cuts ammonia production to save gas

[MUST READ] Critical minerals recovery from waste streams

Japan strikes benchmark coal deal at $375/tonne ($BBG)

Germany to subsidise energy efficiency renovations

IMF downgrades global economy forecasts

Pakistan raises electricity prices

U.S./Russia oil price cap ($FT)

U.S. uranium import reliance

CYCLICAL INDICATORS: three of the top five stories featured on the front page of the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday are about slower sales, slower corporate earnings and slower hiring:

CATERPILLAR’s share price in the three months from May to July was down by -13% compared with the same period a year ago. The heavy equipment manufacturer’s share price has been closely correlated with the OECD’s leading economic indicator. The slump is consistent with the onset of a business cycle slowdown:

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Best in Energy – 22 March 2022

EU divided over response to high gas and power prices

Japan calls for electricity saving after earlier earthquake

Japan’s power supplies stretched after earthquake ($BBG)

Australia/Russia alumina embargo boosts end metal prices

China orders coal stocks replenished immediately ($BBG)

Vitol warns of volatility and margining challenges ($FT)

Jilin hit by widespread coronavirus outbreak (trans.)

Russia’s role as a uranium fuel exporter ($WSJ)

Global uranium supply dominated by Russia

U.S. energy-related CO2  projections through 2050

JAPAN called for electricity conservation as temperatures plunged and stretched power supplies after an earthquake damaged generation last week:

EU+UK GAS inventories are on course to an expected post-winter low of 272 TWh with a likely range of 238-292 TWh. Mild temperatures and ultra-high prices have reduced gas consumption while the region has continued to attract imports. As a result, the post-winter projection has improved significantly from just 215 TWh on Dec. 26. The region still needs to accumulate much higher-than-normal inventories over the next six months but every TWh saved now is one TWh of inventory that will not be needed later:

EU GAS prices have fallen as the inventory outlook has become more comfortable and the likelihood of an immediate cessation of pipeline imports from Russia has appeared to recede. Front-month futures prices have fallen to €96/MWh from a record €227 on March 7. The summer July 2022 to winter January 2023 calendar spread has shrunk to a backwardation of less than €9 from almost €72 on March 7. The market is still signalling the need for a large and urgent refill of inventories but is no longer trading at the crisis levels of two weeks ago:

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