Tag: Turkish straits

Best in Energy – 13 December 2022

EU agrees carbon border tariff in principle

China deletes epidemic phone tracking app

China faces exit wave of infections ($BBG)

China’s internal aviation rebounds ($BBG)

U.S. shale oil revolution is maturing ($BBG)

Turkish Straits re-open to oil tankers ($BBG)

U.S. solar roll out slows on trade restrictions

U.K. grid cancels stand-by notices for coal units

Battery materials technology

COAL-FIRED generators typically require 2-3 hours from initial notification to reach full power from a hot start, 6-7 hours from a warm start, and 10 or more hours from a cold start. Assuming the two massive coal units at Drax are typical, if the U.K. transmission operator wants them to be available during the evening peak from 1600 to 1900 GMT, notice to light up and begin warming must be given by 0600 GMT. If the forecast reserve margin improves during the day, however, the stand-by notices can be cancelled later, as happened on December 12.

The table below shows typical timelines for coal-fired and gas-fired generators showing how it takes (1) from initial notification from the grid controller to synchronisation with the grid – at which point the generator can start providing power to the network; and (2) from synchronisation to reaching maximum power output (“Technical Assessment of the Operation of Coal & Gas Fired Plants,” Parsons-Brinckerhoff for the U.K. Department of Energy, 2014):

LONDON and southeast United Kingdom are now a quarter of the way through the typical heating season. After an exceptionally warm period from mid-October to late November, which depressed heating demand, temperatures have plunged far below normal, erasing the earlier deficit in degree days, and putting winter heating demand on an entirely different trajectory:

Best in Energy – 8 December 2022

Semiconductors as fulcrum of U.S./China conflict ($FT)

U.S./EU explore deal on technology and subsidies ($WSJ)

Saudi/China summit showcases U.S. triangulation ($FT)

China’s relationship with the Arabian peninsula (trans.)

Western allies try to unblock oil queue at Turkish Straits

Renewables growth sharpens focus on need for dispatch

United Kingdom approves first new coal mine for decades

U.K. temperatures fall well below seasonal average

U.S. coal-fired generation in slow retreat

Abadan oil crisis – U.K. official history

BRITAIN’s electricity transmission system is heading towards what is likely to be the first triad event of winter 2022/23 on the early evening of December 8. Freezing temperatures with little wind and an early end to solar generation will maximise demand on the island-wide transmission system from 1630-1800 GMT. Net demand has been climbing steadily towards likely-triad levels in recent days. Major customers with discretionary loads have a strong incentive to reduce demand in these critical periods to benefit from lower transmission charges through throughout the entire year ahead. Deliberate “triad avoidance” behaviour helps curb peak loads and reduce stress on the system:

Best in Energy – 6 December 2022

Renewables deployment accelerated by energy crisis

North Carolina substations in sophisticated sabotage

Oil tankers in queue to transit Turkish straits ($FT)

France prepares for tight power supplies next week

New England grid outlines winter reliability plan

EU retail sales fall with economy in recession ($WSJ)

EU plan for gas price cap distracts from real problem

U.S. jet fuel consumption below pre-pandemic level

BRENT’s six-month calendar spread has collapsed to a backwardation of just 67 cents per barrel (54th percentile for all trading days since 1990) from $8 (98th percentile) at the start of November. Month-to-month spreads are flat through April 2023. Traders anticipate crude supplies will remain comfortable through the first few months of next year because: (a) the EU/G7 price cap on Russia’s exports was set at a relatively high level; (b) policymakers have signalled a relaxed approach to enforcement (c) refiners have boosted purchases and inventories ahead of the price cap’s introduction; and (d) the slowing global economy is expected to dampen oil consumption: