Best in Energy – 26 September 2022

U.S. Treasury promotes plan for Russia oil price cap

Germany business confidence at post-pandemic low

Germany struggles to agree deals for LNG ($BBG)

Transport shares stumble on recession risk ($WSJ)

China metal trader to restructure ($BBG)

Oil futures markets are not broken ($BBG)

U.S. INTEREST RATE traders expected the central bank to increase its target for the fed funds rate to 4.50-4.75% or even 4.75-5.00% by April 2023, up from 3.00-3.25% at present, as policymakers battle to reduce inflation quickly before it becomes entrenched in wage and price-setting behaviour. Rising expected rates are pushing up the dollar’s exchange value, suppressing inflation at home, but intensifying inflation and financial pressure in other advanced economies in Europe and Asia as well as emerging markets:

U.S. DOLLAR has appreciated by almost +9% over the last twelve months against a trade-weighted basket of other major currencies, as the central bank increases interest rates rapidly. The stronger exchange rate will help reduce domestic inflation but will also worsen the trade deficit:

BRITAIN’S CURRENCY has fallen to a record low against the U.S. dollar and is not far above its record lows against the euro, which will increase competitiveness but put upward pressure on the price of road fuel, gas, electricity and other imported items:

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Best in Energy – 16 May 2022

China’s coal output rises sharply in Jan-Apr

China utilities to rebuild coal stocks ($BBG)

U.K. gasoline and diesel sales start to fall

EU hurries to rebuild depleted gas inventories

EU explores emergency price cap on gas ($BBG)

Climate pressure tempered by energy security

EU/Ukraine steel trade disrupted by war ($FT)

Texas grid appeals for electricity conservation

South Africa increases load-shedding blackouts

EU backs down on rouble gas payments ($BBG)

Remote workers balk at return to office ($WSJ)

CHINA’s coal production climbed by almost +12% in the first four months of the year compared with the same period in 2021, as the government ordered miners to maximise output to reduce the risk of electricity shortages and cut dependence on imports from Australia:

U.S. TRANSPORTATION SERVICES (freight, post and passengers) prices increased at an annualised rate of almost +47% in the three months from January to April – as the supply chain remained under pressure and fuel costs surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions imposed in response:

U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT has weakened sharply this month and has fallen to levels consistent with a recession in the past:

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