Tag: temperatures

Best in Energy – 9 May 2023

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GERMANY’s manufacturing production is flat-lining as businesses struggle with weak demand for durable goods and energy prices remain elevated compared with before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

NORTHWEST EUROPE’s heating season has largely ended and temperatures have been above the long-term seasonal average at Frankfurt in Germany since late April. Frankfurt has experienced a total of 1,804 heating degree days since July 1, 2022, compared with a long-term seasonal average of 2,146, a deficit of -16%:

Best in Energy – 2 May 2023

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U.S. fuel use slips amid freight recession (FT)

India predicts heatwaves in May (Bloomberg)

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New York to limit gas connections (Utility Dive)

CHINA’s manufacturers unexpectedly reported a fall in business activity in April after rapid growth in March and February. The purchasing managers’ index slumped to 49.2 (6th percentile for all months since 2011) down from 51.9 (92nd percentile) in March and 52.6 (96th percentile) in February. The surge in activity after the end of coronavirus controls and the passing of the exit wave appeared to have run out of momentum, at least temporarily:

U.S. GAS inventories rose by +79 billion cubic feet over the seven days to April 21. Inventories have tracked much higher than usual so far in 2023 and were at the highest level for the time of year since 2020 and before that 2017. Stocks were +280 billion cubic feet (+16% or +0.61 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average up from a deficit of -261 billion cubic feet (-8% or -0.98 standard deviations) at the start of 2023:

Best in Energy – 26 April 2023

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U.S. gas stock draw in winter 2022/23 (EIA)

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Nordic transmission grid incident (Reuters)

EUROPE’s summer-winter gas futures calendar spread between July 2023 and January 2024 has slumped into a contango of more than €17 per megawatt-hour down from €4 on December 30 and a backwardation of €3 at the start of last winter on October 3. Storage is expected to become full well before the end of the traditional refill season in late October or early November. Nearby futures prices are falling to encourage more consumption this summer and divert cargoes to price-sensitive buyers in Asia. But prices in the middle of next winter are still expected to be high given limits on the total amount of gas that can be stored and released and the consequent need for demand restraint in December 2023 and January 2024:

NORTHWEST EUROPE has experienced a slightly colder-than-normal start to the gas refill season, limiting the volume added to storage and forestalling a sharper fall in futures prices and deeper contango. Average daily temperatures at Frankfurt in Germany have been -0.6°C below the long-term seasonal average so far in April:

Best in Energy – 19 April 2023

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U.K. forecasts enough gas this summer (Reuters)

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NORTHERN INDIA’s temperatures have risen faster than normal since the start of April. Average daily temperatures in the New Delhi suburb of Palam reached 33.4°C on April 18 up from 20.7°C on March 31. Temperatures have been above the long-term seasonal average every day since April 14 after being continuously below average for almost a month between March 17 and April 13. So far, the transmission network has coped with the rapid increase in demand for refrigeration and air-conditioning. Network frequency has dipped as temperatures climb but remains reasonably close to the target of 50.0o Hz. Periods of severe under-frequency below 49.90 Hz are generally around 12% or less each day, which is fairly typical in India:

Best in Energy – 12 April 2023

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NORTHWEST EUROPE’s temperatures were below the long-term seasonal average for much of the first ten days in April, prolonging heating demand and delaying the start of the refill season for gas inventories. Temperatures at Frankfurt in Germany (a proxy for the densely inhabited northwest Europe macro-region) were below normal for seven of the first eight days in April. As a result gas inventories continued to deplete and reached a seasonal low on April 7, which is relatively late. Since 2011, the median date for minimum inventories has been March 30:

Best in Energy – 3 April 2023

OPEC⁺  announces pre-emptive production cut

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India’s state-owned coal company boosts production

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EUROZONE manufacturers reported a fall in business activity in March for the ninth month running. The final reading for the purchasing managers’ index was 47.3 (17th percentile since 2006), little changed from the preliminary reading of 47.1 published just over a week earlier, and well below the 50-point threshold dividing expanding activity from a contraction. Energy prices have retreated from record highs in the third quarter of 2022 but remain far above the long-term average. Excess inventories continue to weigh on orders and production. Manufacturers now have to deal with increased fears about a recession and increased caution from household and business purchasers:

NORTHWEST EUROPE is now more than 90% of the way through the heating demand season. The accumulated number of heating degree days at Frankfurt in Germany (a proxy for the densely populated macro-region of Northwest Europe) in winter 2022/23 was just 1,621 on March 31 compared with a long-term average of 1,966 (-18%). Temperatures were above the long-term average on 124 out of 182 days between October 1 and March 31 compared with only 58 days at or below normal:

Best in Energy – 17 March 2023

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U.S. INTEREST RATE markets steadied on March 16 as the Federal Reserve organised major national banks to help boost confidence in their smaller regional counterparts by placing large-scale deposits with First Republic bank. Rate forecasts firmed slightly. But the rate trajectory implied by futures prices still shows rates declining from August onwards as the central bank responds to tightening credit conditions and a slowing economy:

NORTHWEST EUROPE is roughly 85% of the way through the heating season. Temperatures at Frankfurt in Germany have been close to the long-term seasonal average since the start of March. But very warm temperatures in October and from mid-December to mid-January have left a significant deficit in heating demand that has not been erased. The total number of degree days so far this winter (1540) is -16% below the long-term average (1842):

Best in Energy – 3 March 2023

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NORTH INDIA has experienced above-normal seasonal temperatures since early February, driving an increase in air-conditioning and refrigeration demand and boosting electricity consumption to a record level. Temperatures in New Delhi’s Palam suburb have been above the long-term seasonal average for 18 out of 22 days since February 9:

U.S. GAS INVENTORIES are depleting much more slowly than normal for the time of year. As a result, inventories were +209 billion cubic feet (+11% or +0.55 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on February 24 up from a deficit of -427 billion cubic feet (-13% or -1.52 standard deviations) on September 9, 2022:

Best in Energy – 13 February 2023

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NORTHEAST ASIA has experienced an unusually cold winter, in contrast to milder than normal temperatures at the other end of the Eurasian continent. Heating demand in Beijing, the heart of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jīng-Jīn-Jì) mega-region, with a combined population of 113 million, has been +8% higher than the long-term average so far this winter. Beijing’s daily temperatures were below the seasonal average on 43 of 62 days in December and January:

Best in Energy – 10 February 2023

Russia plans to cut oil production by 0.5 million b/d in March

Indonesia’s coal-fired generation and “just energy transition”

U.S. gas production growth set to slow as futures prices slump

Germany’s storage firms to “refine” gas purchasing strategy

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U.S. heating oil prices ease from record high in early November

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NORTHWEST EUROPE is now roughly two-thirds of the way through the winter heating season. In an average year, two-thirds of all heating degree days at Frankfurt in Germany occur on or before February 10. Cumulative heating demand has been the lowest since the winter of 2015/16 and before that 2006/07. With the 2022/23 heating season now winding down, traders’ attention has already turned to the summer refill season and winter 2023/24:

U.S. INTEREST RATE traders anticipate a major reduction in inflationary pressure – with or without a significant slowdown in the business cycle – which has been reflected in a sharp reduction in forward interest rate forecasts. Market forecasts for interest rates at the end of 2024 fell by more than a full percentage point between the start of November and the start of February: