Best in Energy – 30 September 2022

EU divided on capping price of imported gas

U.S. commercial real estate’s energy efficiency

Netherlands’ inflation hits 17% in September

U.S. hiring strong despite sluggish GDP ($WSJ)

Nord Stream was sabotaged says NATO ($WSJ)

U.K. currency and debt market in crisis ($WSJ)

U.K. pension funds received margin call ($BBG)

Oil traders hunt for price floor

Low Earth Orbit satellites are proliferating

CHINA’s currency is trading close to its lowest level against the dollar since 2008 as U.S. interest rates rise while China’s economy struggles to end the cycle of coronavirus lockdowns:

CHINA’s manufacturers reported a slight increase in business activity this month after declines in the two prior months. The purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.1 (24th percentile for all months since 2011) in September from 49.4 (7th percentile) in August and 49.0 (2nd percentile) in July. The economy appears to have stabilised but is not growing significantly as a result of repeated city-level lockdowns and travel restrictions:

U.S INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT claims fell to 193,000 last week, implying the labour market remains very tight, which will likely keep upward pressure on interest rates:

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Best in Energy – 26 September 2022

U.S. Treasury promotes plan for Russia oil price cap

Germany business confidence at post-pandemic low

Germany struggles to agree deals for LNG ($BBG)

Transport shares stumble on recession risk ($WSJ)

China metal trader to restructure ($BBG)

Oil futures markets are not broken ($BBG)

U.S. INTEREST RATE traders expected the central bank to increase its target for the fed funds rate to 4.50-4.75% or even 4.75-5.00% by April 2023, up from 3.00-3.25% at present, as policymakers battle to reduce inflation quickly before it becomes entrenched in wage and price-setting behaviour. Rising expected rates are pushing up the dollar’s exchange value, suppressing inflation at home, but intensifying inflation and financial pressure in other advanced economies in Europe and Asia as well as emerging markets:

U.S. DOLLAR has appreciated by almost +9% over the last twelve months against a trade-weighted basket of other major currencies, as the central bank increases interest rates rapidly. The stronger exchange rate will help reduce domestic inflation but will also worsen the trade deficit:

BRITAIN’S CURRENCY has fallen to a record low against the U.S. dollar and is not far above its record lows against the euro, which will increase competitiveness but put upward pressure on the price of road fuel, gas, electricity and other imported items:

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