Best in Energy – 16 February 2023

China plans record solar deployment

Shell’s LNG market outlook for 2023

Sri Lanka hikes power prices by 66%

U.S. gas prices drop in warm January

U.S. energy transition subsidies ($FT)

Truck-makers explore hydrogen fuel cells

Norway examines restricting power exports

U.S. economic data and nonresponse ($BBG)

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve surged by +19 million barrels in the seven days ending on February 10. There was a huge accumulation in reported stocks of crude (+16 million barrels) with smaller increases in gasoline (+2 million) and jet fuel (+1 million) partly offset by a drawdown in distillate fuel oil (-1 million).

Total inventories were still -243 million barrels (-13% or -2.26 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average. But stocks have been trending higher since late December and the deficit to the seasonal average is staring to narrow:

Best in Energy – 24 May 2022

U.S. president’s statements on Taiwan

Biden insists no change in Taiwan policy

U.S. Northeast distillate fuel oil shortage

U.S. Northeast home heating oil reserve

White House examines diesel release

Russia’s crude oil increasingly stuck at sea

LNG flows set to shift from Europe to Asia

Russia’s oil production declines ($BBG)

Amazon to sublet excess storage ($WSJ)

Sri Lanka raises fuel prices sharply

Iran/Venezuela increase oil cooperation

U.S. household finances strong at end 2021

U.S. EAST COAST distillate fuel oil inventories have fallen to just 22 million bbl compared with a pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average of 43 million bbl. Regional inventories have depleted to the lowest level since records began in 1990, leading to intense upward pressure on regional fuel prices:

U.S. DISTILLATE prices have been at a record premium to crude but the shortage is increasingly bleeding into gasoline inventories and prices as well as refiners try to boost output of diesel and jet fuel:

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Best in Energy –4 April 2022

[MUST READ] Sanctions and a long conflict

[MUST READ] Wars and settlements ($BBG)

SPR sale – formal announcement and details

France’s electricity grid calls for conservation

China to buy Russia LNG via middlemen ($BBG)

Australia’s export earnings boosted by conflict

EU/Russia standoff over gas payments

U.S. jet fuel prices surge on East Coast

Aviation recovery at risk from fuel prices ($FT)

Sri Lanka leader imposes state of emergency

United Kingdom takes Russian diesel delivery

U.S. MANUFACTURERS reported a less-widespread increase in business activity last month. The ISM composite index fell to 57.1 in March from 58.6 in February and the lowest reading since Sep 2020 as the expansion decelerates. There was also a sharp deceleration in new orders growth in March. The ISM new orders index slipped to 53.8 from 61.7 the month before, consistent with a slowdown in the business cycle ahead:

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Best in Energy – 31 March 2022

White House briefs on 180 million bbl oil release

U.S./IEA oil releases have had limited impact

Sri Lanka runs out of currency to buy fuel

U.K. horticulture hit by surging gas prices

Germany’s industrial base hit by energy crisis

India’s power generation shortages worsen

Euronav tanker firm suspends Russian business

U.S. hydro output hit by western drought

White House struggles to balance goals ($WSJ)

U.S. PETROLEUM stocks outside the strategic petroleum reserve rose by +2 million bbl to 1,139 million bbl last week. But inventories are -107 million bbl (-9%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average. Stocks have declined in 65 of the last 91 weeks by a total of -323 million bbl since the start of July 2020:

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Best in Energy – 21 March 2022

EU divided on whether to embargo Russian oil

India experiences run on retail diesel outlets

EU’s plan to refill gas storage risks price surge

EU’s short-term reliance on Russian gas ($FT)

Saudi Aramco says global oil market is very tight

U.K./Saudi summit and wider political relations

China civilian aircraft crashes with 132 on board

Economic sanctions – measuring effectiveness

Russia/Ukraine war enters attrition phase ($FT)

Russia/Ukraine war enters attrition phase ($WSJ)

China’s epidemic control in rural areas (trans.)

Sri Lanka’s rising energy bill risks default ($BBG)

BRENT futures open interest fell by a record 352 million barrels over the three weeks spanning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from February 22 to March 15, tumbling to the lowest level since August 2015, as prices spiked higher, volatility increased, margins rose and liquidity dried up:

COAL went from a marginal fuel used in a handful of local areas to become an essential part of England’s pre-industrial economy between 1500 and 1700 – well before the commonly accepted start of the industrial revolution in the later 18th century. By 1700, coal had replaced wood as the dominant fuel for domestic heating in London and most urban centres, and was the main fuel for all manufacturing, including glass-making, salt production, brewing, dyeing, and nonferrous smelting, with the notable exception of iron making:

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