Tag: sabotage

Best in Energy – 6 April 2023

Best in Energy will resume after Easter on Wednesday April 12.

OPEC⁺ output cuts set to test $60 cap on Russia’s oil sales

Exxon halts Brazil deepwater exploration project ($WSJ)

Exxon completes start up of new Texas crude refining unit

New Zealand aluminium smelter’s demand response deal

Global oil tanker voyages redrawn by sanctions on Russia

Sweden tries to dampen speculation about Nord Stream

France/China summit given cautious coverage (trans.)

EU/China summit attempts to de-escalate tensions ¹

Iran/Saudi Arabia foreign ministers meet in China

¹ China’s state-controlled media has relatively limited coverage so far of the summit meeting with French President Emmanual Macron, and almost none on the meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, implying expectations for a major “reset” or improvement in the relationship are modest.

U.S. RAILROADS hauled 10% fewer shipping containers in the first 13 weeks of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022, according to the latest weekly traffic report from the Association of American Railroads, confirming that a significant cyclical slowdown is underway:

U.S. NON-MANUFACTURING businesses reported a much less widespread expansion in March. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing index covering the services, agriculture and mining sectors fell to 51.2 (13th percentile for all months since 1997) in March down from 55.1 (40th percentile) in February. The non-manufacturing index is more volatile and less reliable than its manufacturing counterpart. Nonetheless, it has been trending lower as the non-manufacturing sector follows manufacturers into a significant cyclical slowdown:

Best in Energy – 9 March 2023

Tesla plans to eliminate dependence on rare earths

U.S. energy secretary address to Houston CERAWeek

U.S. oil well initial productivity is declining ($WSJ)

Keystone ordered to trim pipeline pressure ($BBG)

U.S./EU embark on race for energy subsidies ($BBG)

U.S. LNG exports projected to grow in 2023 and 2024

Nord Stream sabotaged by pro-Ukraine team ($WSJ)

Russia/NATO energy war enters attrition phase ($FT)

U.K. workforce remains smaller than before pandemic

India tries to improve electric reliability in April/May

(see also formal press release by the power ministry)

China’s refined petroleum exports set to slow

U.S. solar installers forecast to rebound in 2023

U.S. oil firms embrace hydrogen production idea

U.S./Australia submarine sales agreement ($WSJ)

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve increased by +2 million barrels over the seven days ending on March 3. Stocks have increased in 10 of the last 14 weeks by a total of +31 million barrels from their recent low on November 25, 2022, arresting the previous downward trend. Inventories are still -231 million barrels (-12% or -2.15 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average. But the deficit has narrowed from -278 million barrels (-15% or -3.05 standard deviations) in November:

Best in Energy – 8 March 2023

Russia/India switch trade settlement out of dollars

India’s heightened risk of evening power shortages

Nord Stream sabotage linked to Ukraine ($NYT)

Ukraine denies involvement in pipeline sabotage

U.S. shale chiefs recognise end of revolution ($FT)

Tesla shifts focus to cutting manufacturing costs

Nuclear generation deployment is shifting to Asia  

China’s military researchers study Ukraine conflict

Europe boosts diesel from Middle East and Asia

Tech sanctions to spur industrial espionage ($FT)

U.S./China struggle to stabilise relationship ($WSJ)

U.S. CENTRAL BANK chief Jerome Powell toughened his rhetoric on core inflation during congressional testimony, sending forecasts for interest rates surging higher on March 7. Rate traders expected interest rates to end 2023 at around 5.55% up from a forecast of 5.38% on March 6:

SINGAPORE distillate inventories remain at their lowest level for the time of year since 2008. Stocks are -4 million barrels (-36% or -1.91 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average. The deficit has only narrowed slightly from six months ago when it was -4 million barrels (-34% or -2.21 standard deviations):

Best in Energy – 7 December 2022

G7/Russia oil price cap evolution

China relaxes epidemic controls

India to purchase more gas for power generation

North Carolina’s 3rd day of blackouts after sabotage

Russia/China gas pipeline enters service (trans.)

Russian oil tanker spoofs position signal ($FT)

Russian oil tanker spoofs AIS maritime signals

London’s last great killer smog this week in 1952

BRENT calendar spreads slipped into contango yesterday through May 2023. The combined six-month spread moved into contango for the first time (outside the month-end expiry process when prices and spreads are unrepresentative) for the first time since November 2020, before the first successful coronavirus vaccines were announced:

LONDON is experiencing a period of unusually low temperatures this week, exactly 70 years after similar conditions between December 5 and December 9, 1952, caused the “Great Smog” resulting in 4,000 excess deaths. As temperatures dropped to freezing, domestic and commercial coal combustion surged, sending thousands of tonnes of particulates into the air over the city. A temperature inversion trapped smoke in low-lying areas along the Thames, between the hills surrounding the metropolitan area. For four days and nights, the metropolitan area was blanketed with a suffocating mixture of fog and smoke. The map below shows areas with the worst pollution, which were also the areas with the highest excess mortality:

Best in Energy – 6 December 2022

Renewables deployment accelerated by energy crisis

North Carolina substations in sophisticated sabotage

Oil tankers in queue to transit Turkish straits ($FT)

France prepares for tight power supplies next week

New England grid outlines winter reliability plan

EU retail sales fall with economy in recession ($WSJ)

EU plan for gas price cap distracts from real problem

U.S. jet fuel consumption below pre-pandemic level

BRENT’s six-month calendar spread has collapsed to a backwardation of just 67 cents per barrel (54th percentile for all trading days since 1990) from $8 (98th percentile) at the start of November. Month-to-month spreads are flat through April 2023. Traders anticipate crude supplies will remain comfortable through the first few months of next year because: (a) the EU/G7 price cap on Russia’s exports was set at a relatively high level; (b) policymakers have signalled a relaxed approach to enforcement (c) refiners have boosted purchases and inventories ahead of the price cap’s introduction; and (d) the slowing global economy is expected to dampen oil consumption:

Best in Energy – 5 December 2022

EU sets price cap for Russia crude at $60

(see legal text of EU price cap regulation)

Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers ($FT)

EU sets oil price cap above market ($BBG)

EU cuts gas consumption by 25% ($FT)

U.S. shale production runs into constraints

Saudi/China summit and policy priorities

India’s capital hit by severe winter smog

North Carolina substations attacked ($WSJ)

Japan plans strategic LNG purchasing ($WSJ)

U.S./EU compete to offer green subsidies ($FT)

BP plans big expansion of hydrogen production

U.S. GAS inventories fell faster than the seasonal average in the second half of November. Working gas stocks in underground storage were -178 billion cubic feet (-4.9%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average on November 25 compared with a deficit of -97 bcf (-2.5%) on November 11:

Best in Energy – 7 October 2022

U.K. electricity winter reliability forecast

U.S./Saudi standoff over oil policy ($FT)

White House fury with oil output cut ($BBG)

France outlines plan for “energy sobriety”

Nord Stream inquiry confirms sabotage

Texas electricity market and volatility

Houston and energy system transition

Luck more important than talent ($WSJ)¹

¹ Luck plays a more important role in determining individual success than talent, according to the study authors. But individuals have to be ready and open to grasp opportunities. The best strategy to maximise the probability of success is therefore “expose, explore, exploit,” which seems sound advice.

GERMANY’s industrial production was down -4.5% in the three months from June to August compared with the same period in 2019 before the coronavirus epidemic. The economy is struggling with multiple shocks stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sanctions, gas shortages, higher energy and raw materials prices, and persistently sluggish growth in China:

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Best in Energy – 30 September 2022

EU divided on capping price of imported gas

U.S. commercial real estate’s energy efficiency

Netherlands’ inflation hits 17% in September

U.S. hiring strong despite sluggish GDP ($WSJ)

Nord Stream was sabotaged says NATO ($WSJ)

U.K. currency and debt market in crisis ($WSJ)

U.K. pension funds received margin call ($BBG)

Oil traders hunt for price floor

Low Earth Orbit satellites are proliferating

CHINA’s currency is trading close to its lowest level against the dollar since 2008 as U.S. interest rates rise while China’s economy struggles to end the cycle of coronavirus lockdowns:

CHINA’s manufacturers reported a slight increase in business activity this month after declines in the two prior months. The purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.1 (24th percentile for all months since 2011) in September from 49.4 (7th percentile) in August and 49.0 (2nd percentile) in July. The economy appears to have stabilised but is not growing significantly as a result of repeated city-level lockdowns and travel restrictions:

U.S INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT claims fell to 193,000 last week, implying the labour market remains very tight, which will likely keep upward pressure on interest rates:

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Best in Energy – 29 September 2022

Germany says gas consumption too high

German economists predict recession in 2023

Rotating blackouts could hit cell service¹

California’s demand response in heatwave

China says yuan stable and healthy (trans.)²

Lebanon forced to devalue currency ($FT)

Nord Stream: too early to conclude sabotage

Nord Stream fourth leak discovered ($BBG)

Nord Stream who sabotaged the lines? ($FT)

Hydrocarbon investment in energy transition

Global spending on advertising is falling

¹ Fixed line telephone systems carried their own electricity supply so the network would remain operational during power cuts. From this story it appears cell towers rely on the public distribution system and have not (yet) been prioritised in the same way as hospitals and other essential customers to ensure they remain operational during rotating power cuts. It is a classic example of how complexity and the unplanned evolutionary growth of networks can lead to the fusion or “coupling” of formerly separate systems, unintentionally creating a single point of failure (“Normal accidents”, Perrow, 1999). It is also an example of how the failure of the petroleum, gas or electricity networks can result in the failure of other systems critical to the functioning of a modern economy and society (“Brittle power”, Lovins and Lovins, 1982).

² If a government or a business or any other organisation has to say publicly everything is okay, or some variant, that’s an important sign of problems and stresses. If it really was okay, there would be no need to say it. Do don’t say. So statements such as this are important markers thought not in the way policymakers intend.

U.S. PETROLEUM inventories depleted by -13 million barrels last week, the largest decline this year. Drawdowns included crude (-5 million barrels), gasoline (-2 million), jet fuel (-2 million) and distillate fuel oil (-3 million). Petroleum inventories have depleted in 86 out of the last 117 weeks by a total of -464 million barrels since the start of July 2020. Distillate inventories are just 114 million barrels, the lowest for the time of year since 1996:

Best in Energy – 28 September 2022

U.S. Treasury 10-yr yields surge to 4% (%WSJ)

Russia/NATO nuclear escalation calculations¹

Nord Stream pipelines sabotaged says EU

Nord Stream pipelines sabotaged ($BBG)

Nord Stream pipelines sabotaged ($FT)

Nord Stream pipelines sabotaged (trans.)

Solar generation – global deployment

Iran morality police pulled off streets ($FT)

¹ “On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios” (Kahn, 1965 and 2010) remains the best guide to escalation strategies (escalation ladders, escalate-to-negotiate, escalation pauses and escalation dominance) including the role of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons in conflict. I can highly recommend it as a guide to the current Russia/NATO conflict over Ukraine but also the U.S./Iran conflict in the Persian Gulf and the U.S./China conflict centred on Taiwan.

The taboo on the use of nuclear weapons is strong but has never been as absolute as opinion-formers have implied in public. Both the USSR and USA/NATO actively planned for the use of nuclear weapons in scenarios short of mutually assured destruction. Tactical and strategic nuclear weapons have always been a central part of NATO nuclear doctrine, including ambiguity on “first use”.

Nuclear weapons are also playing an increasingly central role in U.S./China strategic competition. China historically assigned a minor role to nuclear weapons but it is massively increasing its arsenal and delivery systems to give it more leverage and room for manoeuvre in any future conflict with the United States.

Some of the basic outlines of Kahn’s work on escalation can be seen in the table below (taken from page 39). The current Russia/NATO conflict has already escalated beyond the “nuclear war is unthinkable threshold” and reached the 14th or 16th rung on the ladder, with open speculation about breaching the “no nuclear use threshold” and climbing to the 21st-24th rungs or even the 26th-28th rungs:

U.S. TREASURY YIELDS on notes with 10-year maturity have climbed to 4.00% up from just 1.50% a year ago, the fastest increase since 1984. The rapid increase reflects expectations inflation will remain persistent and interest rates will remain higher for longer. The escalation in “risk-free” benchmark yields will force a re-pricing of all other assets and borrowing costs:

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