Best in Energy – 18 July 2022

[MUST READ] Europe must reduce gas consumption now, warns IEA

Russia/Europe locked in economic war of attrition ($WSJ)

Texas deploys power grid emergency measures ($BBG)¹

U.S./GCC summit ends with more oil output uncertain

Hebei’s efforts to reverse groundwater depletion (trans.)

¹ Power grid managers in Texas and elsewhere have a variety of tools to cope with an imminent emergency caused by insufficient generation, including orders to generators for “maximum generation” (mandating output from individual units above their normal recommended operating levels); “no touch” (prohibiting all but critical maintenance and repairs to enable maximum generation and transmission); “reliability must-run” (requiring and paying units to run regardless of their normal economics); and “system-to-system” mutual aid (requesting maximum imports from neighbouring networks). The isolated nature of the Texas grid restricts STS opportunities for ERCOT but it is frequently used in other networks. On the demand side, grid managers can invoke voluntary demand reduction contracts, issue public appeals for conservation, order voltage reductions (usually in two stages), and in the final resort use forcible disconnection, loading shedding and rotating blackouts.

LONDON temperatures have started to ramp towards a likely record on Monday and Tuesday, as the heat builds over southeast England, with each day’s temperature profile hotter the last:

U.S. CRUDE oil inventories around the NYMEX WTI delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma stand at just 21.6 million bbl, the lowest seasonal level since 2014 and before that 2008, when front-month WTI prices were at $122 and $170 respectively adjusted for inflation:

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Best in Energy – 19 May 2022

India’s grid is struggling to supply record demand

(see also background article on power shortages)

U.S. grid faces reliability challenges this summer

Indonesia boosts energy subsidies by $24 billion

EU elects to turn from Russia gas back to coal ($FT)

Bloomberg’s plan to shake up UK journalism ($BBG)

U.S. PETROLEUM inventories including the strategic petroleum reserve depleted by another 8 million bbl to 1,691 million bbl last week. Inventories have depleted in 72 of the last 98 weeks by a total of 426 million bbl since the start of July 2020. The persistent shortage of oil is putting intense upward pressure on prices:

U.S. GASOLINE stocks fell by 5 million bbl to 220 million bbl in the week to May 13. Inventories have fallen for 14 of the last 15 weeks by a total of 30 million bbl and are now at the lowest for the time of year since 2014:

U.S S&P 500 equity index has fallen by 7% compared with the same period a year ago, and is down by 15% in real terms, as investors anticipate an imminent business cycle slowdown:

U.K. INFLATION has accelerated to 9%, the fastest rate since 1982 and one of the most significant price shocks since the Second World War:

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