BRENT’s front-month futures price fell -$10.73 (-9.5%) on July 5. The decline came on a day with little new information about production or consumption but traders seemed to anticipate a higher probability of an economic slowdown. In percentage terms, the decline was the third-largest since July 2020 and 4.1 standard deviations away from average since 1990:
IF YOU would like to receive best in energy plus my research notes every day, you can add your email to the circulation list using this link: https://eepurl.com/dxTcl1
U.S. GASOLINE prices at retail level and adjusted for wages are now at the highest since 2013. Wage-adjusted gasoline prices are in the 94th percentile for all months since 1994, up from the 60th percentile at the end of 2021. At this level, demand destruction should be evident within the next few months:
FREEPORT LNG’s prolonged disruption is expected to reduce exports from the United States to Europe significantly and tighten the European gas market. Reduced pipeline flows from Russia are likely to worsen the shortfall.
The premium for gas delivered in Northwest Europe rather than at Louisiana’s Henry Hub next month has more than doubled to €109/MWh up from €50 on June 7.
Europe’s summer-winter calendar spread from July 2022 to January 2023 has reverted to a backwardation of almost €3/MWh from a contango of more than €14 on June 8 as traders anticipate the market will be tighter:
SIGN UP to receive best in energy and my research notes every day by adding your email to the circulation list here: https://eepurl.com/dxTcl1