Germany’s gas buying intensified price spike ¹
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¹ Germany’s government-directed gas buying in the spot market likely contributed to the spike in prices in summer 2022 and subsequent slump in winter 2022/23. Price spikes normally occur when a price-insensitive buyer is forced into the market to buy no matter the cost and no matter how much it moves prices higher against themselves.
Spikes are often characteristic of a short-seller forced to buy back their position (“short and caught” or “he who sells what isn’t his’n, must pay the price or go to prison”).
In this case Germany purchased gas for storage regardless of cost to increase inventories and improve energy security ahead of the winter, anticipating a disruption of Russian pipeline flows. Playing the role of “forced buyer”, Germany’s buying likely caused or at least accelerated the rise in prices to record levels in August 2022. Once the forced buying was completed, however, prices corrected lower.
Some EU policymakers have suggested the spike shows the futures market “failed” in the summer of 2022 and needs to be reformed or replaced with an alternative and more representative and liquid benchmark. But arguably the market was simply responding to the presence of a very large and completely price insensitive buyer.
U.S. SERVICE SECTOR inflation appears to have peaked. But prices are still rising at an annualised rate of 5.5-7.5%, two or three times faster than the central bank target of 2.0-2.5% per year. Inflation in the labour-intensive services sector tends to be stickier than for commodities and merchandise, which is why it tends to be a focus for policymakers: