Tag: oil inventories

Best in Energy – 25 May 2023

U.S. LNG exports and impact on domestic prices (EIA)

OPEC⁺ expected to leave output unchanged (Bloomberg)

Greenhouse effect’s intellectual history (Conversation)

Mining as limiting factor for energy transition (Reuters)

Asia coal imports rebound in 2023 (Reuters)

China/Russia gas pipeline negotiations (FT)

U.S. airlines report more near-misses (WSJ)

U.S./China cyber-espionage (Reuters)

(see also joint statement by Five Eyes)

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve depleted by -12 million barrels in the seven days ending on May 19 to the lowest seasonal level since 2004. There was a major drawdown in commercial crude stocks (-12 million barrels) with smaller draws in gasoline (-2 million) and distillate fuel oil (-0.5 million) but a small build in jet fuel (+1 million). Commercial crude stocks are in line with the prior ten-year seasonal average (+0.01 standard deviations) but there are substantial deficits in gasoline (-1.20 standard deviations) and distillates (-1.45 standard deviations):

Best in Energy – 18 May 2023

U.S. propane use fell in warm winter (EIA)

U.S. electric reliability assessment (NERC)

U.S. electric cold weather planning (NERC)

Russia tax revenues from energy fall (FT)

China’s thrifty travel trend (Reuters)

China’s diplomacy with Central Asia (Reuters)

India to refill strategic oil reserve (Bloomberg)

Vietnam urges power conservation (Bloomberg)

INDIA’s gas-fired power generation fell to 1,862 GWh in March 2023 down from 2,481 GWh in March 2022 and 3,988 GWh in March 2021 as the surge in LNG prices encouraged switching to coal and renewables:

U.S. GASOLINE inventories depleted by more than -1 million barrels over the seven days ending on May 12. Stocks are at the lowest seasonal level for nine years since 2014:

Best in Energy – 15 May 2023

Argentina set to reverse gas pipeline (Reuters)

G7 plans tighter sanctions on Russia (Reuters)

EU LNG import capacity surges (Bloomberg)

U.S./Iran tanker seizures (Bloomberg)

Nuclear decommissioning (Bloomberg)

Sour crude market tightens (Reuters)

EUROPE’s middle distillate inventories rose +2 million barrels in April and are up +28 million barrels from their cyclical low in June 2022. Stocks are still -35 million barrels (-8% or -1.15 standard deviations)  below the prior ten-year seasonal average but the deficit has narrowed from -63 million barrels (-13% or -2.05 standard deviations) in June 2022:

U.S. OIL AND GAS drilling activity is slowing sharply in response to the fall in prices since the middle of 2022. The total number of active rigs fell by -17 over the seven days ending on May 12 with a particularly large decline in rigs targeting primarily gas-rich formations (-16). The decline in gas rigs was the largest for more than seven years since February 2016. Exploration and production firms are scaling back in response to prices that have fallen close to their lowest levels in real terms for three decades. Lower drilling conserves cash as well as signalling to investors and futures traders the sector’s determination to act quickly to avert prolonged over-production:

Best in Energy – 12 May 2023

U.S. SPR could start refill after June (Reuters)

U.S. SPR refill becomes contentious (Prospect)

China issues new fuel export quotas (Reuters)

U.S. public support for nuclear power (Salon)

Giffen goods and the impact of inflation (FT)

Russia’s oil and the shadow fleet (Bloomberg)

El Niño to cut Thai rice exports (Bloomberg)

U.S. INITIAL CLAIMS for unemployment insurance benefits climbed to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 in the week ending on May 5, the highest since October 2021. Initial claims have been trending higher since October 2022 and more clearly since the end of January 2023 in a sign the labour market is starting to cool:

U.S. GAS inventories rose +78 billion cubic feet to 2,141 billion cubic feet over the seven days ending on May 5. Stocks are +257  billion cubic feet (+14% or +0.58 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average. The surplus has remained broadly unchanged for the last 8-9 weeks since early March:

Best in Energy – 11 May 2023

Oil majors and earnings from trading (FT)

South Africa’s electricity cable thefts (FT)

U.S. Northwest hydroelectric outlook (EIA)

Inflation and price-setting behaviour (WSJ)

Inflation and demographic transition (Vox)

U.S./China diplomacy management (Reuters)

Mining constraints on energy transition (Reuters)

U.S. SERVICE SECTOR prices increases are decelerating as interest rates rise and growth slows. Services prices increased at an annualised rate of +4.2% in the three months ending in April while prices excluding rent of shelter rose at an annualised rate of just +0.8%:

U.S. DISTILLATE fuel oil inventories fell by -4 million barrels to just 106 million barrels over the seven days ending on May 5. Stocks are -24 million barrels (-18% or -1.39 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year average and the deficit has doubled from -12 million barrels (-9% or -0.73 standard deviations) on March 3:

Best in Energy – 4 May 2023

Gatik becomes major oil tanker operator (FT)

Maersk warns about container slowdown (FT)

Oil tankers forewarned of seizure risk (Reuters)

Iran retaliates by seizing second oil tanker (FT)

China customs inspects crude imports (Reuters)

Russia tries to replicate LNG tech (Bloomberg)

U.S./China to resume climate talks (Reuters)

Gas market to remain tight in 2023 (Reuters)

Haynesville shale gas production rises (EIA)

EUROPE’s gas futures prices continue to slide and the market is moving deeper into contango to stimulate more consumption and limit the build up of inventories this summer. Front-month futures prices have fallen to less than €37 per megawatt-hour from €77 at the start of the year and €170 near the start of the last winter heating season on October 3, 2022.  The summer-winter calendar spread from July 2023 to January 2024 is now in a contango of more than €21 up from just €4 at the start of the year and a backwardation of €2 at the start of last winter:

U.S. DISTILLATE fuel oil inventories stood at just 110 million barrels on April 28. Stocks were -20 million barrels (-15% or –1.21 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average and the deficit has widened from -12 million barrels (-9% or -0.73 standard deviations) on March 3:

Best in Energy – 27 April 2023

Best in Energy will resume on Tuesday May 2.

Oil prices fall on economic fear after OPEC⁺ cut (Bloomberg)

United States defends semiconductor subsidies (Bloomberg)

Pioneer Resources chief to retire (again) at end of 2023 (FT)

U.S. diesel prices drop amid freight recession (WSJ)

Australia thermal coal re-routed to China (Reuters)

U.S. coal shipments to generators rose in 2022 (EIA)

U.S. GASOLINE inventories fell by -2 million barrels to 221 million barrels over the seven days ending on April 21. Inventories are at the lowest for the time of year since 2014 and -12 million barrels (-5% or -0.86 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average:

U.S. PETROLEUM inventories including the strategic reserve fell by -1 million barrels over the seven days ending on April 21. Stocks have depleted in 103 out of 147 weeks since the start of July 2020 by a total of -506 million barrels:

Best in Energy – 20 April 2023

Global refining capacity to surge in 2023/24 (Bloomberg)

EU gas consumption dropped 18% in August-March (FT)

El Niño likely to increase temperatures in 2023 (Reuters)

Germany’s plan to phase out oil and gas heating (Reuters)

Pakistan starts buying Russian crude (Reuters)

EUROPEAN UNION gas consumption was significantly below the prior ten-year seasonal average every month between October and March. In the big seven consumers (Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium and Poland) consumption fell by -15% over the six-month period, mostly as a result of warmer-than-normal weather and industrial shutdowns:

U.S. JET FUEL inventories have normalised from a large deficit six months ago. Stocks were +0.2 million bbl (+0.4% or +0.06 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year average on April 14, erasing a deficit of -6.3  million bbl (-15% or -2.83 standard deviations) on October 2:

Best in Energy – 16 February 2023

China plans record solar deployment

Shell’s LNG market outlook for 2023

Sri Lanka hikes power prices by 66%

U.S. gas prices drop in warm January

U.S. energy transition subsidies ($FT)

Truck-makers explore hydrogen fuel cells

Norway examines restricting power exports

U.S. economic data and nonresponse ($BBG)

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve surged by +19 million barrels in the seven days ending on February 10. There was a huge accumulation in reported stocks of crude (+16 million barrels) with smaller increases in gasoline (+2 million) and jet fuel (+1 million) partly offset by a drawdown in distillate fuel oil (-1 million).

Total inventories were still -243 million barrels (-13% or -2.26 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average. But stocks have been trending higher since late December and the deficit to the seasonal average is staring to narrow: