Tag: logistics

Best in Energy – 5 April 2023

[MUST READ] Cobalt, artisan mining and batteries

India’s power generation growth fastest since 1990

Iraq’s northern oil producers plan to restart exports

Russia’s distillate exports re-routed to Middle East

OPEC⁺ market power rises as U.S. shale decelerates

California’s logistics hub signals downturn ($WSJ)

EU/China summit attempts to de-escalate tensions

SINGAPORE’s inventories of distillate fuel oil are accumulating as the market moves into surplus. Stocks have risen in 12 of the last 15 weeks by a total of +3 million barrels. Inventories are still -1.5 million barrels (-14% or -0.83 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average but the deficit has narrowed from -3 million barrels (-31% or -1.35 standard deviations) on December 18:

U.S. DURABLE GOODS orders for nondefense capital equipment other than aircraft were just +4.2% higher in February 2023 than in February 2022. But orders are measured in nominal terms so given rapid inflation the real volume is falling. Nominal orders have been flat since the third quarter of 2022 confirming a slowdown in business investment is underway:

Best in Energy – 11 January 2023

U.S. energy transition hits workforce shortage

FedEx cuts parcel deliveries on falling demand

India considers temporarily lifting solar tariffs

Europe’s mild winter increases drought threat

EU regulator launches LNG price assessment

Plastics boost petroleum consumption ($BBG)

Chesapeake’s recovery after insolvency ($WSJ)

U.S. electricity price volatility

Quantum computing ($FT)

EUROPE’s gas inventories are rapidly nearing a record high for the time of year following warmer than normal temperatures and reductions in industrial consumption. EU28 inventories were 937 TWh on January 9 closing in on the seasonal record of 944 TWh set in winter 2019/20.

Stocks were +247 TWh (+36% or +2.37 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average up from a surplus of +92 TWh (+10% or +0.86 standard deviations) at the start of the winter season on October 1. The storage surplus is still increasing.

Inventories are projected to reach a post-winter low of 591 TWh with a probable range of 460 TWh to 749 TWh. If that proves correct, storage facilities would end the winter 52% full, with a likely range from 41% to as much as 66%:

Best in Energy – 8 June 2022

U.S. president invokes defense production act to accelerate energy transition

(see also official statements on insulation, heat pumps and fuel cells)

Governments rethink intervention in energy markets

La Niña threatens to disrupt U.S. energy and agriculture

China’s leaders focus on transport and logistics (trans.)

U.S./Venezuela relations start to thaw ($BBG)

U.S. RETAIL GASOLINE prices have climbed to an average of almost $5 per gallon, the highest after adjusting for wages since June 2014, when Islamic State fighters were threatening to capture the giant oilfields of northern Iraq. Wage-adjusted pump prices are in the 92nd percentile for all months since 1994, up from the 60th percentile in December 2021 and the 53rd percentile in June 2021:

U.S. ROAD FUEL prices are rising even faster than crude benchmarks, resulting in an increasing premium first for diesel and now gasoline, as refineries prove unable to keep pace with demand from freight hauliers and private motorists:

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Best in Energy –  24 March 2022

[MUST READ] U.S. shale firms and production limits

Germany warns against immediate oil embargo ($FT)

Russia’s oil flows redirected to China and India ($BBG)

Oil shocks and impact on equity valuations

Australia’s domestic gas industry and higher prices

China port congestion worsens amid lockdowns ($BBG)

U.S. PETROLEUM inventories outside the strategic petroleum reserve fell last week by another -7 million bbl to 1,137 million bbl. Commercial stocks have declined in 65 of the last 90 weeks by a total of 325 million bbl since the start of July 2020. Inventories are at the lowest level for the time of year since 2014:

U.S. SHALE firms cite pressure from investors to return cash to shareholders as the main reason for not increasing output, with almost 30% of respondents to the Dallas Fed survey saying they would not increase output faster at any price:

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