Tag: industrial production

Best in Energy – 17 May 2023

[MUST READ] U.S./China diplomatic rivalry (Bloomberg)

Oil price decline driven by porous sanctions (Bloomberg)

Vehicle tyres, electric vehicles and air pollution (Reuters)

India to complain to WTO over EU carbon tariff (Reuters)

China to accelerate rural rollout of electric cars (Xinhua)

Russia/NATO economic warfare and asset seizures (FT)

India’s surging air-conditioning demand (Bloomberg)

Indonesia wants cheaper transition funds (Bloomberg)

Australia’s LNG exports and energy transition (Reuters)

U.S. office occupancy flat as return-to-office stalls (WSJ)

U.S. office sale prices slump (WSJ)

U.S. gas price forecast to rise (EIA)

U.S. rural electric subsidies (Reuters)

Nuclear fusion supply chain (Reuters)

U.S. oilfield services see sharp slowdown (FT)

U.S. MANUFACTURING production excluding volatile output of vehicles and parts was down -1.6% in April 2023 compared with April 2022. Production for the three months from February to April was down -1.5% compared with the same period a year earlier:

U.S. BUSINESS INVENTORIES remain elevated despite efforts to reduce them which implies the softness in industrial and freight activity is likely to be prolonged for several more months. Manufacturers, distributors and retailers held inventories equivalent to 1.39 months of sales in March 2023, unchanged from December 2022, and up from just 1.30 months in March 2022. Excess inventories are particularly high at distributors and retailers which will remain a drag on new orders:

Best in Energy – 28 February 2023

Russia’s oil export revenue and sanctions impact

Japan’s opposition to nuclear power falls ($BBG)

BP transfers statistical review to new publisher

Lithium prices tumble as bubble bursts

China’s pensions and population ageing

Yemen’s stricken oil storage tanker ($FT)

GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION was essentially flat in December 2022 compared with December 2021, as output deteriorated through the latter part of 2022 in response to rising inflation, faltering consumer and business purchases of merchandise, and efforts to reduce excess inventories. Output growth has slowed to rates consistent with the onset of recessions in 2001, 2008 and 2020, though also with mid-cycle slowdowns in 2012 and 2015 from which the economy re-accelerated:

Best in Energy – 16 December 2022

Lithium prices double on output deficit

Global coal consumption hits record high

China braces for impact of rural epidemic

ICE warns it could relocate TTF gas futures

Russia crude sold to India under $60 ($FT)

China experiences intense cold snap (trans.)

Texas oil production hit by seismicity limits

EUROPE’s seven-largest gas consuming countries (excluding the United Kingdom) reported consumption was down -21% in October compared with the same month a year earlier, and down by a similar percentage compared with the ten-year average, as a result of high prices, conservation, and milder-than-normal temperatures in the second half of the month:

U.S. MANUFACTURING output shows signs of peaking. Production was up by just +1.4% in November compared with the same month a year earlier, the smallest increase for almost two years, and the growth rate has been decelerating progressively since February:

Best in Energy – 7 October 2022

U.K. electricity winter reliability forecast

U.S./Saudi standoff over oil policy ($FT)

White House fury with oil output cut ($BBG)

France outlines plan for “energy sobriety”

Nord Stream inquiry confirms sabotage

Texas electricity market and volatility

Houston and energy system transition

Luck more important than talent ($WSJ)¹

¹ Luck plays a more important role in determining individual success than talent, according to the study authors. But individuals have to be ready and open to grasp opportunities. The best strategy to maximise the probability of success is therefore “expose, explore, exploit,” which seems sound advice.

GERMANY’s industrial production was down -4.5% in the three months from June to August compared with the same period in 2019 before the coronavirus epidemic. The economy is struggling with multiple shocks stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sanctions, gas shortages, higher energy and raw materials prices, and persistently sluggish growth in China:

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