Best in Energy – 19 October 2022

Global freight’s peak season is fizzling out ($WSJ)

EU industry at risk from high energy costs ($FT)

OPEC⁺ and the U.S./Saudi diplomatic relationship

EU explores multiple price caps for imported gas

U.S. SPR will buy oil if futures prices fall to $67-72

(see also text of final rule)

MIDDLE DISTILLATES (focusing here on diesel and gas oil but excluding kerosene and jet fuel) are the most cyclically sensitive part of the oil market. If there is a global economic slowdown in 2023 it will hit distillate consumption hardest. Conversely, if distillate shortages ease it must come about through a slowdown in global growth:

EUROPEAN GAS PRICES are softening throughout the remainder of 2022 and 2023 in response to a near-record refill season, high gas inventories, warmer than average weather forecasts for the first part of winter, and the prospect of reduced consumption from energy-intensive industries: