Tag: heating demand

Best in Energy – 12 April 2023

India’s railways struggle to move enough coal to industry

EU explores options to end LNG imports from Russia

Steel industry and emissions metrics for decarbonisation

Multilateral development banks and the energy transition

U.S. economy’s twin business and epidemic cycles ($WSJ)

U.S. manufacturing capacity growth is accelerating ($WSJ)

Russia’s crude oil exports close to busting $60 cap ($BBG)

China’s policymakers grapple with pension reforms ($WSJ)

Global energy transition, affordability and reliability ($FA)

NORTHWEST EUROPE’s temperatures were below the long-term seasonal average for much of the first ten days in April, prolonging heating demand and delaying the start of the refill season for gas inventories. Temperatures at Frankfurt in Germany (a proxy for the densely inhabited northwest Europe macro-region) were below normal for seven of the first eight days in April. As a result gas inventories continued to deplete and reached a seasonal low on April 7, which is relatively late. Since 2011, the median date for minimum inventories has been March 30:

Best in Energy – 3 April 2023

OPEC⁺  announces pre-emptive production cut

OPEC⁺ cuts production as economic outlook deteriorates

OPEC⁺ surprises with cut after saying it would hold ($BBG)

OPEC⁺ cut shows revenue needs and U.S. divergence ($FT)

Europe’s marine insurers complain about sanctions ($FT)

Russia shifts oil sales benchmark from Brent to Dubai

India’s state-owned coal company boosts production

U.S. city planners reduce number of parking spaces ($WSJ)

EUROZONE manufacturers reported a fall in business activity in March for the ninth month running. The final reading for the purchasing managers’ index was 47.3 (17th percentile since 2006), little changed from the preliminary reading of 47.1 published just over a week earlier, and well below the 50-point threshold dividing expanding activity from a contraction. Energy prices have retreated from record highs in the third quarter of 2022 but remain far above the long-term average. Excess inventories continue to weigh on orders and production. Manufacturers now have to deal with increased fears about a recession and increased caution from household and business purchasers:

NORTHWEST EUROPE is now more than 90% of the way through the heating demand season. The accumulated number of heating degree days at Frankfurt in Germany (a proxy for the densely populated macro-region of Northwest Europe) in winter 2022/23 was just 1,621 on March 31 compared with a long-term average of 1,966 (-18%). Temperatures were above the long-term average on 124 out of 182 days between October 1 and March 31 compared with only 58 days at or below normal:

Best in Energy – 1 March 2023

India’s coal producers see booming fuel demand

China’s massive deployment of wind generation

Northwest Europe forecast cold winter end ($BBG)

India heatwave boosts power use to record ($BBG)

U.S. consumer confidence and expenditure ($BBG)

U.S. shale firms squeezed by escalating costs ($FT)

Colorado refinery shut after cold weather damage

U.S. electricians in increasing demand ($WSJ)

Russia/China nuclear cooperation ($BBG)

Central banks fear impact of rising wages ($FT)

CHINA’s manufacturers reported the most widespread rise in business activity for over a decade as the economy rebounded after the end of coronavirus lockdowns and the passing of the epidemic’s exit wave. The official purchasing managers’ index surged to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012, and up from just 50.1 in January 2023 and 47.0 in December 2022. The index was in the 96th percentile for all months since 2011 pointing to a very broad upturn in activity:

NORTHWEST EUROPE is more than three-quarters of the way through the heating season. Frankfurt in Germany has experienced 1,377 heating degree days so far this winter compared with a long-term seasonal average of 1,673, a deficit of almost 18%, reducing heating demand and easing the pressure on gas inventories and prices: