Tag: GDP

Best in Energy – 27 January 2023

Freeport LNG takes first steps to restart

EU floats $100 price cap for Russia diesel

Pennsylvania’s transition from coal to gas

India’s electric cars and fuel consumption

China becomes major car exporter ($BBG)

U.S. labour market starts to weaken ($WSJ)

EUROPE’s gas prices continue to slide as traders anticipate a record carry over of inventories at the end of winter 2022/23. Futures prices for deliveries in March 2023 fell to just €55 per megawatt-hour on January 26 from €110 on December 19 and €177 at the start of the winter season on October 3. Prices are falling to encourage more consumption, principally from energy-intensive industrial users and power generators, to ensure there is more storage space left to absorb excess production in summer 2023:

U.S. GROWTH stalled in the fourth quarter of 2022. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (FSPDP), a measure excluding volatile changes in inventories, trade and government spending, increased at an annualised rate of just +0.2% in the fourth quarter, slowing from +1.1% growth in the third quarter, and +2.6% a year earlier. Real FSPDP advanced at the slowest rate since the first wave of the pandemic in 2020 and before that the recession in 2009.

Business inventories increased rapidly between October and December contributing +1.46 percentage points to reported output growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. Inventory accumulation was probably unplanned as sales were lower than expected. Large inventory changes are normally reversed within one or two quarters. The accumulation during the fourth quarter of 2022 is likely to be followed by efforts at depletion which will make a negative contribution to reported output growth in the first and second quarters of 2023:

Best in Energy – 29 July 2022

EU’s bilateral emergency energy sharing deals

U.S. refiners say fuel consumption still strong

Japan’s energy saving template for Europe

U.S./China leaders call – White House view

U.S./China leaders call – China view (trans.)

Global coal use rebounds to previous peak

German city turns off lights and hot water

U.S. REAL FINAL SALES to private domestic purchasers were unchanged in the second quarter after advancing at an annualised rate of +3.0% in the first, confirming the economic slowdown that has been evident for some time. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (RFSPDP) strips out the impact of inventory changes, government spending and trade to focus on the underlying behaviour of households and businesses and is therefore the best indicator of underlying economic momentum. RFSPDP was growing at the slowest rate since the first wave of the pandemic in 2020 and before that the recession of 2008/09:

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Best in Energy – 13 July 2022

Baltic grids prepare to synchronise to EU rapidly

OPEC predicts oil consumption to rise in 2023

Russia’s fuel exports to Middle East surge ($BBG)

China hydropower generation hits record high

U.S. homes with electric-only energy systems

China hesitates to mandate vaccination ($BBG)

Rapid inflation and its many discontents ($FT)

BRENT’s calendar spread from December 2022 to December 2023 has softened to a backwardation of $8 per barrel from $16 in early June as traders anticipate a cyclical economic slowdown will relieve some of the shortage in oil supply next year:

TEXAS electricity consumption increased at a compound annual rate of +1.5% over the last 20 years, reaching 427 billion kWh in 2021, up from 318 billion kWh in 2001:

U.K. REAL GDP rose by +0.51% in May from April, the fastest increase for four months, with particularly large increases in manufacturing (+0.87%) and construction (+1.54%):

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Best in Energy – 12 May 2022

South Africa’s coal and a just energy transition

U.K. economy on the cusp of a recession

U.S. East Coast hit by local jet fuel shortage

U.S. West Coast ports start pay talks ($WSJ)

China’s top leaders jockey for position ($WSJ)

China calls for elderly to get vaccinated (trans.)

U.K. REAL GDP declined in both February and March, a sign growth was stalling even before the rise in utility prices and payroll taxes took effect in April:

TEXAS power consumption has surged to a near-record as the state is hit by a sustained period of much higher than normal temperatures for the time of year:

U.S. PETROLEUM inventories increased by +3 million bbl to 1,699 million bbl last week (SPR crude  -7 million; commercial crude  +8 million; gasoline  -4 million; distillate  -1 million; and jet  +2 million):

U.S. DISTILLATE inventories fell -1 million bbl to 104 million bbl. Distillate availability shows no improvement but it is not deteriorating either at present:

U.S. GASOLINE inventories depleted by -4 million bbl to 225 million bbl last week, the lowest for the time of year since 2014, as distillate shortages bleed across into gasoline:

Best in Energy – 29 April 2022

EU regulators defend electricity market design

India explores purchase of Russian oil assets

EU LNG imports running at full capacity ($BBG)

China admits epidemic supply disruption (trans.)

EU struggles with payment for Russian gas

Austria’s payment for Russian gas ($BBG)

EU options for sanctioning Russian oil ($WSJ)

South Asia’s fuel-oil power generation ($BBG)

U.S. REAL FINAL SALES to private domestic purchasers (FSPDP) increased at an annualised rate of 3.7% in the first quarter, accelerating from 2.6% in the fourth quarter, according to advance estimates published on April 28.

Real FSPDP excludes the effect of foreign trade as well as the temporary impact of changes in government spending and inventory accumulation and depletion, so is the most useful measure of underlying spending by households and businesses. The economy exhibited strong momentum in the first three months of the year.

But headline real gross domestic product shrank at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the first quarter as a result of negative effects from foreign trade (-3.2 percentage points), inventory accumulation (-0.8 percentage points) and slower government spending (-0.5 percentage points):

U.S. S&P 500 equity index has risen just 2.5% over the last twelve months; the slow increase is consistent with an end-of-cycle recession or mid-cycle slowdown:

U.S. CONSUMERS were the most negative about the government’s economic policy in March for seven years – with levels of disapproval consistent with recessions and mid-cycle slowdowns in the past:

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