Tag: Freeport LNG

Best in Energy – 22 February 2023

EU gas consumption fell 19% in Aug-Jan period

U.S. Treasury outlines Russia sanctions strategy

China’s renewable energy deployment (trans.)

Iberia’s gas and power markets remain isolated

Kazakhstan plan to export oil via Russia ($BBG)

Freeport LNG obtains approval for partial restart

Derivatives go dark after cyber-attack ($BBG)

U.S. commercial property in recession ($WSJ)

Lithium prices retreat from record high ($FT)

Australia/China coal shipments resume

BRENT’s front-month futures price has fallen to $82 per barrel down from a high of $127 at the end of May 2022, after adjusting for inflation. But is that still fairly high or already below the long-term average? It depends whether or not the comparison includes the long period of low prices in the 1990s. In real terms, $82 is in the 65th percentile for all months since 1990, still fairly high. But if the 1990s are excluded, prices are in the 42nd percentile for all months since 2000 and the 48th percentile for all months since 2010, already in the lower half of the distribution:

Best in Energy – 20 February 2023

Freeport LNG’s poor safety culture ($FT) ¹

Asia’s diesel margins fall to 11-month low

IEA chief warns of gas shortage next winter

Pakistan/Bangladesh hit by expensive LNG

China becomes major LNG reseller ($BBG)

CFTC reports still disrupted by cyber attack

U.S. construction worker shortages ($FT)

Semiconductor prices fall by a third ($BBG)

China/Russia diplomatic ties deepen ($WSJ)

U.S./China espionage history review ($FT)

¹ Freeport LNG suffered a catastrophic failure after multiple safety systems failed and personnel ignored warning signs and lost situational awareness about the state of the plant. The resulting explosion is a classic example of what James Reason called an “organisational accident” – multiple systems should have prevented an incident but they were allowed to erode because of a poor internal safety culture leading to a rapid increase in risk (“Managing the risks of organisational accidents”, Reason, 1997).

Reason’s book is one of the best I have read on any topic, offering powerful insights in an engaging and accessible way. He provides a general framework for understanding why many catastrophic industrial and transportation failures happen. Everyone operating critical systems and machinery should be required to read it as part of their training. I can strongly recommend it to everyone else who is interested in safety, reliability and resilience systems.

U.S. OIL AND GAS drilling rates have stalled in response to the slump in prices since the third quarter of 2022. There has been no net increase in the number of active rigs (760) for the last 31 weeks:

Best in Energy – 13 February 2023

Cyber-attack disabled futures reporting system

China/Qatar negotiating LNG buying agreement

U.S. shale producers plan more mergers ($FT)

U.S. gas futures price volatility is rising ($WSJ)

Freeport LNG had systemic safety failures ($BBG)

Global petroleum supply and inflation risk ($BBG)

NORTHEAST ASIA has experienced an unusually cold winter, in contrast to milder than normal temperatures at the other end of the Eurasian continent. Heating demand in Beijing, the heart of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jīng-Jīn-Jì) mega-region, with a combined population of 113 million, has been +8% higher than the long-term average so far this winter. Beijing’s daily temperatures were below the seasonal average on 43 of 62 days in December and January:

Best in Energy – 3 February 2023

China imports Russian fuel oil

Iraq hit by severe dollar shortage

U.S. refiners prepare to cut output

U.S. renewable diesel expansion

Freeport LNG requests restart

U.K. experiences no major storms

EU/Russia energy flows ($WSJ)

CIA chief on U.S./China relationships

U.S./China balloon overflight  ($BBG)

U.S. GAS PRICES have fallen less than $2.60 per million British thermal units from more than $9 six months ago. In real terms, prices have fallen to just the 3rd percentile for all months since 1990 down from the 86th percentile in August 2022:

Best in Energy – 1 February 2023

South Asia’s LNG buyers express interest after prices fall

France’s nuclear generators key for power prices in 2023

India to boost government capital spending in 2023/24

U.S. refiners predict high margins on Russian sanctions

U.S. road haulage firms see recovery in late 2023  ($WSJ)

Greek tankers resume shipments of Russian oil

Pakistan prepares for IMF loan – or debt default

U.S. gas consumption hit record on December 23

Freeport LNG requests authorisation to restart one unit

U.S. CRUDE OIL including condensates production fell by -35,000 b/d to 12.38 million b/d in November compared with October. But production was up by +585,000 b/d (+5.0%) compared with the same month a year earlier. Annual growth levelled off at around +600,000 b/d for most of 2022: