Germany takes control of Russian-owned refinery
EU explores alternative benchmarks for gas prices
U.K. government set to lift moratorium on fracking
La Niña disrupts global economy ($BBG)
Europe’s gas prices have retreated ($FT)
EU28 GAS STOCKS stood at 953 TWh on September 14 and are on course to reach 1,019 TWh with a likely range of 981-1,080 TWh by the time the summer refill season ends in late October or early November. Inventories will begin the winter drawdown season at the third-highest level on record.
In the last ten years, inventories have drawn down by an average of 588 TWh with a range of 352-782 TWh between the peak in October-November and the trough in March-April. But this has been with strong pipeline inflows from Russia and other countries as well as LNG deliveries.
If Russian pipeline flows are severely disrupted the winter draw is likely to be much higher. High prices and exceptional demand restraint will be needed to ensure stocks do not run out before the winter ends. Even so, they are likely to fall to very low levels by next March, implying another herculean effort to refill them next summer:
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