Best in Energy – 29 March 2022

EU reviews link between electricity and gas prices

U.S./EU and the idea of a new Marshall Plan for energy

Rhine’s low water levels threaten diesel flows ($BBG)

Fertiliser prices surge as a result of war ($BBG)

Austin airport issues jet fuel alert ($BBG)*

* During the Second World War, Britain ordered inbound shipping to bunker overseas to conserve oil and coal for the war effort and reduce the number of tankers that needed to run the gauntlet of German submarine attacks in the Atlantic.

EU+UK GAS inventories hit a post-winter low of 291 TWh on March 19 according to preliminary estimates from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks have since risen by around 8 TWh. The provisional post-winter low occurred on the earliest date since 2012 and fell 11-12 days earlier than the median for the last decade as a result of mild temperatures and exceptionally high prices discouraging consumption and attracting maximum imports:

EU+UK GAS inventories have depleted by 578 TWh over winter 2021/22. The drawdown compares with averages of 651 TWh over the previous five years and 561 TWh over the previous ten years. The post-winter minimum is the lowest since the winter of 2017/18. But it is only 81 TWh below the five-year average and 57 TWh below the ten-year average. Stocks have ended this winter low but not exceptionally so owing to mild weather and exceptionally high prices:

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Best in Energy – 25 March 2022

Brent futures margin requirements raised further

Europe’s diesel shortage threatens output growth

U.S. refiners source more fuel oil from Middle East

EU diesel supply vulnerable to Russia ban ($BBG)

EU faces high costs for filling gas storage ($BBG)

China economy disrupted by new epidemic ($BBG)

Russia/Ukraine war cuts fertiliser supply ($WSJ)

Mexico follows Fed in raising interest rates

UAE/Saudi seek to reset U.S. relationship ($FT)

EUROPEAN gas oil and Brent twelve-month calendar spreads are both trading in the 99.9th percentile for all trading days since 2000 as traders anticipate possible severe shortages of both crude and products stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and U.S./EU sanctions imposed in response:

EUROZONE manufacturers reported a less widespread expansion this month as war in Ukraine and inflation pushes the region’s economy towards a cyclical slowdown. Preliminary readings put the purchasing managers’ index at 57.0, down from 58.2 in February, and the lowest since January 2021, when economy was still gripped by pandemic:

GERMANY’s IFO business expectations index fell to 85.1 in March from 98.4 in February, a level only normally seen during a recession, as employers prepare for the impact of the war and sanctions to be felt on the domestic economy:

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