Best in Energy – 5 October 2022

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[MUST READ] Critical infrastructure protection ($BBG)

Germany plans more financial help for gas importers

Nord Stream sites off limits as authorities investigate

U.S. trade oil groups warn against banning exports

Europe accelerates deployment of electric vehicles

Bangladesh hit by widespread electricity blackout

U.S./Saudi relations strained by oil policy ($FT)

Iran’s social unrest is broadening ($WSJ)

EU28 GAS STOCKS were +158 TWh (+19%) higher on October 3 than on the same date in 2021, after one of the largest inventory accumulations on record this summer:

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Best in Energy – 1 August 2022

OPEC says Russia is essential to success of OPEC+

Lyondell plans to repurpose Houston oil refinery

New England solar reshapes electricity load curve

EU/UK ease sanctions on Russian oil trade ($FT)

U.S. threatens to sanction Iran oil trading ($WSJ)

Bangladesh sees LNG shortage until 2026 ($BBG)

China’s leaders recommit to zero-covid (trans.)

Australia explores controls on LNG exports

U.S. energy systems hit by shortages ($WSJ)

Iraq’s political crisis is intensifying ($WSJ)

CHINA’s manufacturers reported a significant contraction in activity last month with the composite purchasing managers’ index falling to 49.0 in July (2nd percentile for all months since 2011) down from 50.2 in June (33rd percentile). Repeated lockdowns are disrupting supply chains and economic activity:

U.S. GAS production was up +4.2% in May compared with the same month a year earlier, and up +3.1% in the three months March-May compared with the same period in 2021:

U.S. CRUDE OIL production fell -57,000 b/d in May compared with April as lower output from the Gulf of Mexico (-157,000  b/d) more than offset increases from the onshore Lower 48 (+95,000 b/d) and Alaska (+5,000 b/d). Onshore L48 output was up by just +468,000 b/d in March-May compared with the same period a year earlier:

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Best in Energy – 17 June 2022

White House mulls export gasoline and diesel controls ($BBG)

Australia threatens export controls on coal ($FT)

U.S. energy secretary to talk with oil refiners

Australia’s power generation shortage eases

Qatar/China negotiate joint ventures in LNG

U.S. power prices forecast to rise

U.S. GASOLINE prices at retail level and adjusted for wages are now at the highest since 2013. Wage-adjusted gasoline prices are in the 94th percentile for all months since 1994, up from the 60th percentile at the end of 2021. At this level, demand destruction should be evident within the next few months:

FREEPORT LNG’s prolonged disruption is expected to reduce exports from the United States to Europe significantly and tighten the European gas market. Reduced pipeline flows from Russia are likely to worsen the shortfall.

The premium for gas delivered in Northwest Europe rather than at Louisiana’s Henry Hub next month has more than doubled to €109/MWh up from €50 on June 7.

Europe’s summer-winter calendar spread from July 2022 to January 2023 has reverted to a backwardation of almost €3/MWh from a contango of more than €14 on June 8 as traders anticipate the market will be tighter:

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Best in Energy – 25 April 2022

China’s oil consumption tumbles ($BBG)

Russia’s crude oil production falls ($BBG)

Coal consumption hits new record ($BBG)

China oil and gas output rises rapidly ($BBG)

China’s growing domestic gas production

China only buyer for Russia divestments ($FT)

U.K. supermarkets limit cooking oil sales

Indonesia prohibits palm oil exports

Indonesia justifies palm oil export ban

Fuel tax cuts boost Russia’s oil revenues

Commodity currencies hit by global slowdown

Emerging markets fear reprise of 1994 tequila crisis

EU explores options for Russia oil embargo

India blackouts during hot weather ($BBG)

U.S. PETROLEUM inventories including the strategic petroleum reserve depleted by -13 million bbl to 1,699 million bbl in the week to April 15. There were large draws in crude (-13 million bbl) and distillate fuel oil (-3 million bbl) underscoring the continued shortage of oil in global markets and strong demand, for now, for middle distillates from manufacturers and freight firms:

INDIA’s electricity grid is struggling to meet demand as air conditioning and refrigeration loads climb with temperatures that have been well above the long-term seasonal average. Frequency remains well below the target of 50 Hz, with a control range of 49.90-50.05, for much of the day as there is insufficient generation. The situation seems to have stabilised since early April but is fragile with little or no spare capacity to absorb additional shocks or meet further demand:

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