Tag: energy efficiency

Best in Energy – 10 February 2023

Russia plans to cut oil production by 0.5 million b/d in March

Indonesia’s coal-fired generation and “just energy transition”

U.S. gas production growth set to slow as futures prices slump

Germany’s storage firms to “refine” gas purchasing strategy

U.K. energy inefficient homes and heritage preservation ($FT)

U.S. heating oil prices ease from record high in early November

CFTC/ICE commitment of traders suspended for second week

NORTHWEST EUROPE is now roughly two-thirds of the way through the winter heating season. In an average year, two-thirds of all heating degree days at Frankfurt in Germany occur on or before February 10. Cumulative heating demand has been the lowest since the winter of 2015/16 and before that 2006/07. With the 2022/23 heating season now winding down, traders’ attention has already turned to the summer refill season and winter 2023/24:

U.S. INTEREST RATE traders anticipate a major reduction in inflationary pressure – with or without a significant slowdown in the business cycle – which has been reflected in a sharp reduction in forward interest rate forecasts. Market forecasts for interest rates at the end of 2024 fell by more than a full percentage point between the start of November and the start of February:

Best in Energy – 2 December 2022

Japan explores strategic LNG reserve ($BBG)

U.S./Russia signal readiness for negotiations

U.S. DOE wants to halt SPR sales ($BBG)

Energy prices spur interest in efficiency

U.S. ethanol blending rate at record high

U.S. refiners set to buy Venezuelan crude

Cybersecurity and the internet of things

NORTHERN EUROPE is forecast to experience colder-than normal temperatures through the first half of December, which will boost gas and electricity consumption. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting is predicting colder-than-average seasonal temperatures for the weeks from December 5 to 12 (first chart) and December 12 to 19 (second chart):

U.S. MANFACTURERS reported business activity started to decline last month, for the first time since the first wave of the pandemic. The ISM composite index slipped to 49.0 in November (22nd percentile for all months since 1980) from 50.2 in October (31st percentile) and 60.6 a year ago (96th percentile).

Manufacturing growth has decelerated progressively this year and activity now shows the first sign of falling in absolute terms. Firms signalled a further decline in new business last month. The new orders component slipped to just 47.2 in November from 49.2 in October and 61.4 a year ago. It is well-below the threshold dividing expanding activity from a contraction – implying activity is likely to slow further over the next few months:

Best in Energy – 30 September 2022

EU divided on capping price of imported gas

U.S. commercial real estate’s energy efficiency

Netherlands’ inflation hits 17% in September

U.S. hiring strong despite sluggish GDP ($WSJ)

Nord Stream was sabotaged says NATO ($WSJ)

U.K. currency and debt market in crisis ($WSJ)

U.K. pension funds received margin call ($BBG)

Oil traders hunt for price floor

Low Earth Orbit satellites are proliferating

CHINA’s currency is trading close to its lowest level against the dollar since 2008 as U.S. interest rates rise while China’s economy struggles to end the cycle of coronavirus lockdowns:

CHINA’s manufacturers reported a slight increase in business activity this month after declines in the two prior months. The purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.1 (24th percentile for all months since 2011) in September from 49.4 (7th percentile) in August and 49.0 (2nd percentile) in July. The economy appears to have stabilised but is not growing significantly as a result of repeated city-level lockdowns and travel restrictions:

U.S INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT claims fell to 193,000 last week, implying the labour market remains very tight, which will likely keep upward pressure on interest rates:

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Best in Energy – 27 July 2022

[MUST READ] Germany cuts ammonia production to save gas

[MUST READ] Critical minerals recovery from waste streams

Japan strikes benchmark coal deal at $375/tonne ($BBG)

Germany to subsidise energy efficiency renovations

IMF downgrades global economy forecasts

Pakistan raises electricity prices

U.S./Russia oil price cap ($FT)

U.S. uranium import reliance

CYCLICAL INDICATORS: three of the top five stories featured on the front page of the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday are about slower sales, slower corporate earnings and slower hiring:

CATERPILLAR’s share price in the three months from May to July was down by -13% compared with the same period a year ago. The heavy equipment manufacturer’s share price has been closely correlated with the OECD’s leading economic indicator. The slump is consistent with the onset of a business cycle slowdown:

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