Tag: energy affordability

Best in Energy – 23 February 2023

Chesapeake to reduce gas drilling and completions

Auto firms split on electrification timeline ($WSJ)

Commodity markets adapt to Russia/Ukraine war

Europe’s gas storage and refill for winter 2023/24

U.K. government to cut costs for big energy users

U.K. steelmaker plans to close coking ovens

U.S./Russia/China armaments supply ($WSJ)

IEA chief warns EU about complacency ($FT)

BRENT’s six-month calendar spread is trading in a backwardation of $1.80 (71st percentile for all days since 1990). The spread has tightened from a contango of $0.65 (34th percentile) since December 9 as expectations for a soft-landing in the global economy have increased. But it is well below levels before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, implying the market is comfortably supplied despite sanctions on Russia and output restraint by OPEC⁺ and U.S. shale firms:

Best in Energy – 29 November 2022

Europe LNG import capacity to rise by +34% by 2024

EU continues negotiations on oil price cap

BP evaluates future of statistical review

UN climate targets start to stretch to +1.7°C ($WSJ)

U.K. energy crisis hits poorer households hard ($FT)

Europe’s electricity networks brace for winter ($FT)

CHINA was historically a collection of macro-regional economies, with strong transport and commercial links within each region, but much weaker links between regions. The country’s rapid industrialisation and urbanisation since reform and opening in 1978-1980 has led to much more integration at national level, but regionalism remains persistent.

The first map, showing ten macro regions in 1893, is taken from “The Structure of Chinese History”, a presidential address given by Skinner to the U.S. Association of Asian Studies in 1984. The second map, showing nine regions, consolidating the Gan Yangtze region into the Middle Yangtze, is taken from “Evolving core-periphery interactions in a rapidly expanding urban landscape”, Ye et al., 2004. The final set of three maps is taken from the government’s most recent Five-Year Plan (2021):

Best in Energy – 16 November 2022

India’s refiners prepare for price cap from early December

China’s refiners request state aid on Russian crude ($BBG)

Europe’s energy crisis and supply security lessons ($BBG)

U.K. households and the increase in energy debts ($BBG) ¹

California ports report drop in container volumes ($WSJ)

Freeport LNG – root cause report on explosion

¹ Food and energy shortages have always been about prices and affordability rather than physical supplies and availability. Higher-income and wealthier households will always find ways to put food on the table and heat their homes, it is lower-income and poorer households that lack financial resources that are unable to cope and hit hardest (“Corn supply of ancient Rome”, Rickman, 1980).

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA’s ports are experiencing a sharp drop in container traffic reflecting contentious labour negotiations and the threat of a strike as well as the slowdown in global merchandise trade and efforts by U.S. manufacturers and distributors to cut excess inventories. Combined container traffic through the neighbouring ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach was just 0.84 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, down from 1.07 million TEUs in the same month in 2021, and the lowest for the time of year since the recession of 2009:

Best in Energy – 12 April 2022

Retail gasoline prices: rockets and feathers

EU’s proposed carbon tariff moves forward

U.S./India talks about Russia oil

OPEC warns EU about oil shock

U.S. households’ energy security

BRENT spot prices and especially calendar spreads have softened significantly and are now trading at or below levels prevailing immediately before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China’s coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns, signs of a business cycle slowdown in Europe and North America, and the massive offer of 240 million barrels from strategic stocks by the United States and its allies have all weighed on futures near to expiry:

BRENT futures for delivery in July 2022 – the impact of the business cycle and epidemic waves on oil prices:

U.S. GASOLINE and diesel prices at the pump are still elevated despite the reduction in crude futures prices as fuel inventories remain low:

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