Best in Energy – 12 January 2023

PJM says 46 GW of generators failed to respond ¹

U.S. says price cap is cutting Russia’s oil earnings

Global LNG import volumes hit record high

Freeport LNG outage extended to February

French aluminium smelter begins restart

South Africa hit by worst ever power cuts

Freight forwarder cuts employment ($WSJ)

Australia/China coal trade restarts ($WSJ)

Saudi Arabia plans full nuclear fuel cycle

LME’s nickel-market breakdown inquiry

¹ PJM’s post-event study for winter storm Elliot on December 24 is worth reading in full and confirms the major problem was the failure of many generators to respond to instructions from the grid because of a failure to start up or secure enough fuel (principally gas). Generators were unavailable even though they had been given repeated warnings of an extreme weather event for several days beforehand and told to prepare for a plunge in temperatures. In many cases, generators provided less than 1 hour of notice they would not be available. If generators cannot be depended upon to respond to instructions they cannot be considered firm dispatchable power for reliability purposes.

In response, PJM was forced to initiate a series of relatively extreme emergency measures to protect the transmission system, including voltage reductions and an order for flat-out maximum generation from units that were available.

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve totalled 1,599 million barrels on January 6, the lowest seasonal level since 2004. Stocks have fallen by -185 million barrels over the last 12 months and are down by -518 million barrels from their peak in mid-2020 as production has persistently fallen below consumption:

Best in Energy – 12 August 2022

Australia presses producers to reserve gas for local market

Crypto-mining and electricity demand response

U.S. solar generation installations delayed

U.S./China try to manage Taiwan tensions ($WSJ)

U.S./Iran attempt to finalise nuclear accord ($WSJ)

EUROPE’s GAS INVENTORIES are well above the seasonal average and accumulating at a record or near-record rate as the region attempts to maximise its seasonal storage ahead of the winter and a possible disruption to gas imports from Russia.

  • EU28 gas inventories have risen to 823 TWh up from a post-winter low of 291 TWh on March 19.
  • Stocks are +62 TWh above the prior ten-year seasonal average (+8% or +0.48 standard deviations).
  • The increase in inventories to date from the post-winter low (+532 TWh) is the largest for at least ten years.
  • Inventories accumulated at an average rate of 6 TWh per day over the seven days to August 10, among the fastest seasonal increases in the last decade.
  • Inventories are on course to reach 995 TWh by the end of the refill season (with a likely range of 915-1069 TWh).
  • Expected post-summer stocks are significantly higher than the 878 TWh anticipated at the start of the refill season on April 1 (710-1066 TWh).
  • Expected post-summer inventories have steadily risen as operators have filled storage irrespective of prices.

Expected post-summer stocks are +63 TWh (+7%) above the prior ten-year average (932 TWh).

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