EUROPE’s front-month gas futures price has fallen below €40 per megawatt-hour, down from €189 at the start of winter 2022/23, to encourage more consumption from energy-intensive industries and power generators while redirecting LNG flows to customers in South and East Asia:
CHINA’s southwest received far less precipitation than average in the second half of 2022 and low rainfall has persisted into 2023, threatening hydroelectric power generation and industrial output:
Chile focus on direct lithium extraction (Reuters)
Wind farms look to deeper offshore sites (Reuters)
JAPAN‘s LNG stocks ended January at 2.34 million tonnes, the highest for the time of year for at least eight years. Stocks remained plentiful even though the first part of winter was colder-than-average in Tokyo:
EUROPE’s gas futures prices for November and December have continued to fall as regional storage facilities near maximum capacity. There is enough gas in stock to ensure supplies through the first half of the winter. But the risk to supplies in the second half and during next year’s refill season is keeping prices for 2023 high:
China’s continued drought in Yangtze basin (trans.)
U.S. Northeast fears fuel shortages in event of rail strike
LVMH to turn off store lighting overnight to save power
Eiffel Tower to turn off lights earlier to save power ($WSJ)
U.K. GAS AND ELECTRICITY consumption has not shown a significant decline so far in response to higher prices. I spent a large part of yesterday trying to find a price response in the available official consumption statistics without success. The charts are below. But there are some important limitations:
Electricity consumption data is only available through June and gas data is only available through March owing to publication delays.
Most of the rise in prices has occurred since April with another big increase scheduled to take effect from October.
Heating demand and bills are lower in the summer months reducing consumers’ sensitivity to prices.
Domestic and commercial consumption patterns have been distorted by the lockdowns in 2020/21 and then re-opening in 2022.
Electricity and gas consumption has been on a long-term downtrend as a result of improvements in insulation and efficiency.
Electricity and gas consumption shows significant annual variation depending on winter temperatures.
Once these factors are taken into account, there is no evidence of a significant reduction in gas and electricity use by households, offices and commercial premises so far. If reductions are going to occur, it will be later this year and into 2023:
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