Best in Energy – 21 November 2022

European refiners find themselves with plentiful crude

Europe boosts Russian diesel imports ahead of sanctions

India’s refiners seek extra Russian crude before deadline

U.S. gas inventories erase deficit with late season refills

U.S. consumer spending from pandemic savings ($WSJ)

China promotes science and technology experts ($WSJ)

Central banks go back to basics ($BBG)

BRENT spot prices and calendar spreads are retreating as traders anticipate the market will be balanced or over-supplied in 2023, after having been under-supplied continuously since the middle of 202o. Business cycle downturns across Europe, Asia and North America are expected to reduce oil consumption absolutely or relative to trend, helping rebuild depleted inventories:

Best in Energy – 17 November 2022

U.S. hydrogen – funding and technology deployment

Aramco plans downstream investment in South Korea

U.S. diesel inventories at 70-year seasonal low ($FT)

Texas tries to prepare better for extreme winter cold

U.K. inflation accelerates to 11.1% in October

France’s nuclear generation starts to recover

China/Taiwan bilateral communications cease

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES depleted by -11 million barrels in the week to November 11. Large drawdowns in commercial crude (-5 million bbl), crude in the strategic petroleum reserve (-4 million) and other oils (-3 million) were partially offset by increased stocks of gasoline (+2 million), distillate fuel oil (+1 million) and jet fuel (+0.3 million). Total inventories have depleted by -509 million barrels since early July 2020, the largest drawdown on record and a symptom of persistent under-supply:

Best in Energy – 11 November 2022

China’s leaders reiterate and adapt covid strategy (trans.) ¹

China trims coronavirus quarantine and contact tracing

China’s commentators question covid strategy ($BBG)

Pakistan to ration gas supplies as EU absorbs more LNG

U.S. diesel prices climb as inventories dwindle ($NYT)

U.S. diesel prices rise with stocks low ahead of winter

Global insurers press for more details on oil price cap

¹ The Politburo Standing Committee special study session on epidemic control is top news across all government-controlled media. Reverse engineering the official commentary, top leaders seem anxious to counter political and social fatigue with repeated lockdowns, reinforcing the current zero-covid strategy in the short term despite its rising costs, while also searching for a way out via improved vaccination rates and the development of new vaccines and therapeutic drugs.

U.S. SERVICE SECTOR prices increased at an annualised rate of +7.8% in the three months to October, more than three times faster than the central bank’s target, ensuring that interest rates are likely to continue rising:

BRITAIN’s economy entered a recession during the third quarter with real gross domestic product declining in three out of four months between June and September. So far the downturn has been led by manufacturing but is likely to spread to construction and services:

Best in Energy – 1 November 2022

U.S. distillate shortages – a useful market primer

U.S. workforce and the impact from faster inflation

(more information about the distribution of losses)

United States narrows semiconductor embargo ($BBG)

Japan appeals for winter electricity conservation ($BBG)

U.S. EAST COAST distillate fuel oil inventories were just 24 million barrels on October 21, compared with a pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average of 50 million barrels. The East Coast deficit (-26 million bbl) accounted for nearly all the nationwide deficit (-29 million bbl): 

WESTERN EUROPE’s gas consumptionwas down in August and September by 14-15% compared with the pre-pandemic seasonal average for 2015-2019, as a result of high prices, industrial closures, a slowing economy, and energy conservation measures:

Best in Energy – 31 October 2022

EU LNG offshore queue is depressing gas prices

EU diesel prices at record relative to jet and crude

U.S. road freight faces ‘muted’ peak season ($WSJ)

U.S. gas prices fall as inventories swell ($WSJ)

Copper production is falling short of consumption

Copper shortage threatens energy transition ($FT)

EU/Russia gas conflict, inventory and prices ($FT)

Europe’s consumers cut discretionary spend ($FT)

China builds coal-fired back to renewables ($BBG)

China’s internal news reporting system

China’s ever-normal granaries ($JSTOR)

CHINA’s manufacturers reported a decline in activity last month as the economy struggled with repeated lockdowns. The official purchasing managers’ index slipped to 49.2 in October (4th percentile for all months since 2011) from 50.1 in September (24th percentile). Manufacturing activity has contracted in seven of ten months so far in 2022:

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA’s ports handled the lowest volume of containers in the month of September since 2009, as spending on merchandise slowed and retailers struggled to reduce excess inventories:

Best in Energy –  24 October 2022

Russia oil exports will be able to evade price cap

Russia’s nuclear forces – command and control

China boosts diesel and jet exports in September

U.S. shale producers disregard SPR refill offer

U.S. oil firms reluctant to increase output ($WSJ)

Southern California’s port backlog clears ($WSJ)

Schlumberger rebrands itself as SLB

U.S. SPR used more actively ($FT)

U.S. gas flows in 2021 (Sankey diagram)

Venezuela’s opposition seeks deal ($FT)

UN climate talks lose momentum ($BBG)

EUROZONE manufacturers report the sector has entered recession, based on preliminary results from the monthly purchasing managers survey. Partial results show the manufacturing activity index slipped to just 46.6 in October (14th percentile for all months since 2006) from 48.4 in September (24th percentile):

EUROPE’s temperatures are expected to be at or above the long-term seasonal average during the three months from November to January, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Mild temperatures through October and the relatively warm outlook for the first part of the winter have contributed to downward pressure on the region’s gas futures prices:

Best in Energy – 20 October 2022

Ukraine faces blackouts after Russia targets grid

EU gas storage and government controls ($BBG)

European Commission’s energy price plans

U.S. official says price cap not aimed at OPEC

Russia’s looming tanker crisis

CCS tries to make projects profitable ($FT)

EU states withdraw from energy pact ($FT)

Plague – natural selection and your DNA

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve fell by -6 million bbl last week. Petroleum inventories have depleted in 88 of the last 120 weeks by a total of -486 million bbl since the start of July 2020:

U.S. DISTILLATE FUEL OIL inventories have fallen in 70 of the last 120 weeks by a total of -71 million bbl since July 2020. Stocks are at the lowest seasonal level since the U.S. Energy Information Administration began publishing weekly data in 1982:

Best in Energy – 17 October 2022

[MUST READ] U.S./China relations in Xi Jinping era ($WSJ)

[MUST READ] Nuclear war lessons from past crises ($WSJ)

[MUST READ] China prioritises energy security ($BBG)

Europe’s gas supply still at risk from cold winter weather

EU tries to reach internal consensus on capping gas prices

OPEC+ officials defend Saudi Arabia after U.S. criticism

NOPEC law would escalate U.S./Saudi tensions ($BBG)

California drought drains Lake Shasta ($WSJ)

China plans to boost coal and oil inventories

China to stop LNG resales to Europe ($BBG)

Retailers accelerate sales as inflation rises ($BBG)

Diesel shortage threatens global economy ($BBG)

EUROPE’s gas futures prices for November and December have continued to fall as regional storage facilities near maximum capacity. There is enough gas in stock to ensure supplies through the first half of the winter. But the risk to supplies in the second half and during next year’s refill season is keeping prices for 2023 high:

Best in Energy – 13 September 2022

EU frames energy windfall tax as “solidarity contribution”

EU explores electricity demand reduction at peak hours

Diesel additives are in short supply in Germany ($BBG)

Europe needs more diesel fuel exports from China

Renewable energy jobs set to increase rapidly

U.S. railroads prepare for imminent strike ($WSJ)

China reports cyberattack by United States (trans.)

U.S. Northeast distillate inventories very low

NORTHWEST EUROPE’s benchmark gas futures contract for deliveries in January 2023, the heart of next winter, has fallen to less than €200 per megawatt-hour from a peak of €345 in late August. Higher inventories in seasonal storage have reduced the probability about stocks running out. Plans for significant voluntary and mandatory reductions in gas and electricity consumption and the increasing probability of a region-wide recession will also lessen the pressure on stocks in the event gas supplies from Russia are disrupted:

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Best in Energy – 10 August 2022

European retailers cut lighting and hours to save energy

U.S. electricity use forecast to rise to record high in 2022

Microsoft cuts travel and other expenses ($WSJ)¹

China’s climate is getting hotter and wetter (trans.)

China’s ultra-deep Tarim basin oil and gas wells (trans.)

¹ Most major corporations are starting to restrict travel and other routine expenses spending as they try to cope with rising inflation while maintaining earnings in line with forecasts and analysts’ expectations. Business spending reductions will flow through into slower growth in passenger aviation, hospitality and other business-related services. Spending controls will therefore amplify the broader business cycle slowdown that is already underway.

EUROPE’s major rivers are running very low as a result of the prolonged drought and temperatures well above normal. Recorded water depth on the Rhine at the Kaub gauging station has fallen to just 48 centimetres, the lowest seasonal level for more than a quarter of a century by a wide margin, severely restricting barge freight:

U.S. RETAIL GASOLINE prices have fallen for eight consecutive weeks by a total of -96 cents per gallon (-19%) since June 13. Retail diesel prices have declined for seven consecutive weeks by a total of -82 cents per gallon (-14%) since June 20.

Fuel-price reductions are mostly explained by the decline in international crude prices. Refining margins remain higher than before Russia invaded Ukraine. Diesel prices remain elevated compared with gasoline as a result of the global diesel shortage.

In the last two months, lower crude and fuel prices have been driven by the slowdown in the economy (actual and expected) and the pass-through from former price increases which have enforced changes in household and business behaviour and dampened consumption. In the next few months, if lower prices are sustained, they will relieve some pressure on household budgets and business operating costs, ease recessionary forces, and buy back some of the demand that was lost:

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