Tag: demographic transition

Best in Energy – 11 May 2023

Oil majors and earnings from trading (FT)

South Africa’s electricity cable thefts (FT)

U.S. Northwest hydroelectric outlook (EIA)

Inflation and price-setting behaviour (WSJ)

Inflation and demographic transition (Vox)

U.S./China diplomacy management (Reuters)

Mining constraints on energy transition (Reuters)

U.S. SERVICE SECTOR prices increases are decelerating as interest rates rise and growth slows. Services prices increased at an annualised rate of +4.2% in the three months ending in April while prices excluding rent of shelter rose at an annualised rate of just +0.8%:

U.S. DISTILLATE fuel oil inventories fell by -4 million barrels to just 106 million barrels over the seven days ending on May 5. Stocks are -24 million barrels (-18% or -1.39 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year average and the deficit has doubled from -12 million barrels (-9% or -0.73 standard deviations) on March 3:

Best in Energy – 12 April 2023

India’s railways struggle to move enough coal to industry

EU explores options to end LNG imports from Russia

Steel industry and emissions metrics for decarbonisation

Multilateral development banks and the energy transition

U.S. economy’s twin business and epidemic cycles ($WSJ)

U.S. manufacturing capacity growth is accelerating ($WSJ)

Russia’s crude oil exports close to busting $60 cap ($BBG)

China’s policymakers grapple with pension reforms ($WSJ)

Global energy transition, affordability and reliability ($FA)

NORTHWEST EUROPE’s temperatures were below the long-term seasonal average for much of the first ten days in April, prolonging heating demand and delaying the start of the refill season for gas inventories. Temperatures at Frankfurt in Germany (a proxy for the densely inhabited northwest Europe macro-region) were below normal for seven of the first eight days in April. As a result gas inventories continued to deplete and reached a seasonal low on April 7, which is relatively late. Since 2011, the median date for minimum inventories has been March 30:

Best in Energy – 28 February 2023

Russia’s oil export revenue and sanctions impact

Japan’s opposition to nuclear power falls ($BBG)

BP transfers statistical review to new publisher

Lithium prices tumble as bubble bursts

China’s pensions and population ageing

Yemen’s stricken oil storage tanker ($FT)

GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION was essentially flat in December 2022 compared with December 2021, as output deteriorated through the latter part of 2022 in response to rising inflation, faltering consumer and business purchases of merchandise, and efforts to reduce excess inventories. Output growth has slowed to rates consistent with the onset of recessions in 2001, 2008 and 2020, though also with mid-cycle slowdowns in 2012 and 2015 from which the economy re-accelerated:

Best in Energy – 17 January 2023

China’s population fell in 2022, first time since 1961

China’s coal production hits record high in 2022

India to boost coal imports to meet power demand

Energy transition and the employment impact

EU LNG price assessment thwarted by lack of trades

U.S. businesses turn cautious on investment ($WSJ)

U.S. price rises run into customer resistance ($WSJ)

INDIA’s coal stocks at power plants remain low for the time of year at just 12 days of consumption, up from 9 at the same point in 2022, but down from 18 in 2021 and 19 in 2020. There is a risk inventories could deplete to critical levels in the event of a pre- or post-monsoon heatwave or other pressure on the electricity system, which explains why the government has instructed power producers to increase coal imports:

Best in Energy – 21 December 2022

I am taking a few days leave before the end of the year. Best in Energy will resume on Tuesday January 3

EU gas price cap likely to avoided and evaded

U.S./EU LNG shipments and pricing in 2023

EU statisticians to change energy inflation

FedEx hit by weak parcel shipments ($WSJ)

Global supply chains slacken in 2023 ($BBG)

World Bank call for new debt workouts ($FT)

India’s demographic transition

FEDEX’s share price has slumped by more than -30% over the last year (more than -40% in real terms) as merchandise shipments have slowed after the pandemic. In the past, a retrenchment of this magnitude has been consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown or a cycle-ending recession:

U.S. S&P 500 equity index is down by almost -20% compared with the same point in 2021. In the past, falls of this magnitude have been consistent with the onset of a recession. The index closed at a new high only once in 2022 and that was on the first trading day of the year. The absence of new highs is reminiscent of the 2001-2012 period when equity prices stagnated in the aftermath of the dotcom bubble: