Tag: computers

Best in Energy – 11 October 2022

Europe still faces shortage of gas supplies

U.S. senator urges freeze on Saudi relations

(see also senator’s press statement)

Global refinery capacity shortage

China intensifies post-holiday lockdowns

Coal prices retreat as shortage fears recede

EU explores more emergency energy rules

Iraq cannot afford to cut oil output ($WSJ)

Computer shipments drop sharply ($WSJ)

INDIA’s electricity transmission system is in a much healthier condition than this time last year. Power grid frequency has been kept much closer to its target of 50.0 Hertz indicating a much closer and more stable balance between generation and load. Frequency has only fallen below the acceptable threshold of 49.9 Hertz 3.9% of the time in the first ten days of October compared with 14.4% of the time in the same period last year.

Cooler temperatures have helped by reducing air-conditioning and refrigeration demand. Temperatures were -2.5°C below the long-term seasonal average in the first ten days of October compared with +1.0°C above average in the same period last year.

Coal inventories are also more plentiful ensuring generators can remain online. Stocks at power plants are currently 24.7 million tonnes compared with just 7.3 million tonnes at the same point last year:

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Best in Energy – 12 July 2022

Computer shipments tumble on inflation (WSJ)

Iran/Israel war is emerging from the shadows

Texas averts blackouts with voluntary conservation

U.K. utility bills on course for winter crisis

U.K. retail sales fall rapidly as inflation surges

U.S. Treasury lobbies for oil price cap

Chartbook – what causes an energy crisis?*

* I will update this chartbook from September 2021 to illustrate the gas, electricity and oil crisis in 2022 triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but which was building long before as spare capacity eroded. The current energy crisis has all the four classic elements; (1) pre-crisis erosion of spare production capacity and inventories; (2) failure to appreciate increasing risk and take timely preventive action; (3) a short-term trigger that turns a potential shortage into an actual shortage; and (4) panicked reaction.  

U.S. TREASURY yield curve has continued to invert and is now trading at a premium of 9 basis points between the two-year and ten-year maturities. The yield spread is in 96th percentile for all months since 1980 and implies traders believe a significant economic slowdown is inevitable. The last occasions on which the spread had tightened this much were in January 2007, February 2006, November 2000 and September 1989:

LONDON’s temperatures have climbed sharply since the start of July and are currently +5°C above the long-term average. In contrast to the United States, peak electric load occurs in midwinter rather than midsummer. Solar and wind output is currently favourable. But distribution transformers are vulnerable to the heat:

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