Best in Energy – 17 May 2023

[MUST READ] U.S./China diplomatic rivalry (Bloomberg)

Oil price decline driven by porous sanctions (Bloomberg)

Vehicle tyres, electric vehicles and air pollution (Reuters)

India to complain to WTO over EU carbon tariff (Reuters)

China to accelerate rural rollout of electric cars (Xinhua)

Russia/NATO economic warfare and asset seizures (FT)

India’s surging air-conditioning demand (Bloomberg)

Indonesia wants cheaper transition funds (Bloomberg)

Australia’s LNG exports and energy transition (Reuters)

U.S. office occupancy flat as return-to-office stalls (WSJ)

U.S. office sale prices slump (WSJ)

U.S. gas price forecast to rise (EIA)

U.S. rural electric subsidies (Reuters)

Nuclear fusion supply chain (Reuters)

U.S. oilfield services see sharp slowdown (FT)

U.S. MANUFACTURING production excluding volatile output of vehicles and parts was down -1.6% in April 2023 compared with April 2022. Production for the three months from February to April was down -1.5% compared with the same period a year earlier:

U.S. BUSINESS INVENTORIES remain elevated despite efforts to reduce them which implies the softness in industrial and freight activity is likely to be prolonged for several more months. Manufacturers, distributors and retailers held inventories equivalent to 1.39 months of sales in March 2023, unchanged from December 2022, and up from just 1.30 months in March 2022. Excess inventories are particularly high at distributors and retailers which will remain a drag on new orders:

Best in Energy – 12 April 2022

Retail gasoline prices: rockets and feathers

EU’s proposed carbon tariff moves forward

U.S./India talks about Russia oil

OPEC warns EU about oil shock

U.S. households’ energy security

BRENT spot prices and especially calendar spreads have softened significantly and are now trading at or below levels prevailing immediately before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China’s coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns, signs of a business cycle slowdown in Europe and North America, and the massive offer of 240 million barrels from strategic stocks by the United States and its allies have all weighed on futures near to expiry:

BRENT futures for delivery in July 2022 – the impact of the business cycle and epidemic waves on oil prices:

U.S. GASOLINE and diesel prices at the pump are still elevated despite the reduction in crude futures prices as fuel inventories remain low:

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