OPEC/U.S. shale firms discuss tight capacity
EU to launch joint gas buying system ($BBG)
China’s next premier will be Li Qiang
BP resets renewable energy strategy
South Korea boosts coal-fired power
Russia’s crude shipped to Middle East
U.S. Customs clears China solar panels
U.S. solar generation and wind farms
U.S. oil firms to get CCS subsidies (FT)
India trade pivots to U.S. allies ($WSJ)
U.S. recession postponed again ($WSJ)
U.S./China relations deteriorate ($FT)
U.S./China escalation strategies ($FT)
U.S. INTEREST RATE traders continue to boost their expectations for benchmark short rates at the end of the year as the central bank signals rates may have to go higher and stay there for longer to bring inflation back to target. Rates are now expected to be around 5.25-5.50% in December 2023 up from an expectation of 4.25-4.50% at the start of February:


COMMITMENT OF TRADERS reports – the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and ICE Futures Europe suspended publication of their commitments of traders reports in late January following a ransomware attack on a major market participant and infrastructure provider which resulted in incomplete submissions. Both are now starting to catch up with the backlog of missed weekly reports. ICE has caught up; the CFTC is still some weeks behind. I am not going to publish a weekly analysis again until they have both caught up fully since the reports now contain very out of date information. For reference, however, the hedge fund and money manager positions on February 7, the most recent currently available, are shown below:



