Best in Energy – 7 March 2023

OPEC/U.S. shale firms discuss tight capacity

EU to launch joint gas buying system ($BBG)

China’s next premier will be Li Qiang

BP resets renewable energy strategy

South Korea boosts coal-fired power

Russia’s crude shipped to Middle East

U.S. Customs clears China solar panels

U.S. solar generation and wind farms

U.S. oil firms to get CCS subsidies (FT)

India trade pivots to U.S. allies ($WSJ)

U.S. recession postponed again ($WSJ)

U.S./China relations deteriorate ($FT)

U.S./China escalation strategies ($FT)

U.S. INTEREST RATE traders continue to boost their expectations for benchmark short rates at the end of the year as the central bank signals rates may have to go higher and stay there for longer to bring inflation back to target. Rates are now expected to be around 5.25-5.50% in December 2023 up from an expectation of 4.25-4.50% at the start of February:

COMMITMENT OF TRADERS reports – the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and ICE Futures Europe suspended publication of their commitments of traders reports in late January following a ransomware attack on a major market participant and infrastructure provider which resulted in incomplete submissions. Both are now starting to catch up with the backlog of missed weekly reports. ICE has caught up; the CFTC is still some weeks behind. I am not going to publish a weekly analysis again until they have both caught up fully since the reports now contain very out of date information. For reference, however, the hedge fund and money manager positions on February 7, the most recent currently available, are shown below:

Best in Energy – 20 October 2022

Ukraine faces blackouts after Russia targets grid

EU gas storage and government controls ($BBG)

European Commission’s energy price plans

U.S. official says price cap not aimed at OPEC

Russia’s looming tanker crisis

CCS tries to make projects profitable ($FT)

EU states withdraw from energy pact ($FT)

Plague – natural selection and your DNA

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve fell by -6 million bbl last week. Petroleum inventories have depleted in 88 of the last 120 weeks by a total of -486 million bbl since the start of July 2020:

U.S. DISTILLATE FUEL OIL inventories have fallen in 70 of the last 120 weeks by a total of -71 million bbl since July 2020. Stocks are at the lowest seasonal level since the U.S. Energy Information Administration began publishing weekly data in 1982:

Best in Energy – 3 May 2022

India plans to accelerate coal imports

EU lacks effective minerals strategy

Germany warns of recession risk ($FT)

EU sanctions threaten recession ($BBG)

NATO’s war aims become bolder ($WSJ)

Carbon capture – where is it working?

India’s heatwave in third month ($BBG)

China’s epidemic and economy (trans.)

China becomes world’s top gas importer

U.S./Iran nuclear talks hit impasse

India’s cooking oil imports at risk

Arsenal of democracy’ (Roosevelt 1940)

INDIA’s temperatures have been consistently above the long-term seasonal average in the north and west of the country since March 13, driving record demand for refrigeration and air-conditioning. In New Delhi’s Palam suburb, cooling demand has been 43% higher than normal since the start of the year:

INDIA’s daily peak electricity consumption hit a new record of 207,000 megawatts last week as the heatwave boosted demand:

INDIA’s power generators held coal stocks equivalent to just 8 days worth of consumption at the end of April, compared with 12 days at the same point in 2021 and 18 days in 2019, as record power generation has made it hard to rebuild inventories after they were severely depleted in 2021:

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