Tag: California

Best in Energy – 23 May 2023

Germany to subsidise industrial power (Reuters)

Boeing sceptical on sustainable aviation fuel (FT)

U.S. western states in Colorado river deal (WSJ)

Ford’s procurement deals for lithium (FT)

Ocean shipping container production falls (FT)

U.S. retailers near end of destocking cycle (WSJ)

EUROZONE manufacturers have reported another widespread decline in business activity so far in May. Preliminary results show the purchasing managers’ index slipping to 44.6 (6th percentile for all months since 2006) in May down from 45.8 (8th percentile) in April and 54.6 (67th percentile) a year ago. The index is firmly in recession territory at the lowest level since the first wave of the pandemic in March-May 2020 and before that July 2012 and October 2008-June 2009 following the financial crisis:

EUROPE’s gas storage is refilling more slowly than average as a result of a relatively cold start to spring and sharply lower prices encouraging more consumption by industry and power generators. Storage sites across the European Union and United Kingdom (EU28) topped up their fill by +10.3 percentage points between March 31 and May 21 compared with a prior ten-year average top up of +11.3 percentage points. But because storage started from a record high, fill remains exceptionally high. EU28 storage was 65.9% full on May 21, the second highest on record, and compared with a prior ten-year seasonal average fill of just 44.7%:

Best in Energy – 22 May 2023

China’s lithium futures prices rebound (Reuters)

Nigeria starts up major new oil refinery (Reuters)

California approves more transmission (Reuters)

U.S. military to indigenise explosives supply (WSJ)

Asia LNG imports rise following price drop (Reuters)

Argentina oilfield workers strike on safety (Reuters)

Crude oil prices are falling in real terms (Bloomberg)

Russia’s oil output increasingly opaque (Bloomberg)

Russia/Asia energy trade volume rises  (Bloomberg)

EUROPE’s front-month gas futures price has fallen below €30 per megawatt-hour from €77 at the start of January 2023 and a record of almost €340 in August 2022. Gas inventories are plentiful following a mild winter and cuts in industrial consumption. As a result storage is on course to be full well before next winter starts. Prices are declining to stimulate industrial demand and divert LNG to more price-sensitive customers in South and East Asia:

U.S. OIL DRILLING is slowing in response to the fall in prices since the middle of 2022. The cyclical upturn in drilling activity that started after the end of the first wave of the pandemic in August 2020 is likely over. The number of active rigs targeting oil-rich formations fell to 575 over the seven days ending on May 19 down -11 compared with the previous week and by a total of -52 compared with the early December 2022:

Best in Energy – 18 April 2023

Global economic fragmentation and prices (ECB)

Tin prices surge after Myanmar warning (Reuters)

Asia’s oil refining margins are shrinking (Reuters)

California gas connections ban overruled (Reuters)

Russia’s plan for more oil storage (Reuters)

Russia fuel increasingly traded in Gulf (WSJ)

Russia oil sanctions evasion warning (OFAC)

European airlines report strong demand (FT)

U.S. directed-energy weapons systems (GAO)

Gas market quarterly outlook (Oxford Institute)

SINGAPORE’s middle distillate inventories have accumulated since hitting a cyclical low in late November and early December. Stocks are still -2.2 million barrels (-20% or -1.28 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average but the deficit has narrowed from -3.1 million barrels (-31% or -1.35 standard deviations) on December 18:

Best in Energy – 5 April 2023

[MUST READ] Cobalt, artisan mining and batteries

India’s power generation growth fastest since 1990

Iraq’s northern oil producers plan to restart exports

Russia’s distillate exports re-routed to Middle East

OPEC⁺ market power rises as U.S. shale decelerates

California’s logistics hub signals downturn ($WSJ)

EU/China summit attempts to de-escalate tensions

SINGAPORE’s inventories of distillate fuel oil are accumulating as the market moves into surplus. Stocks have risen in 12 of the last 15 weeks by a total of +3 million barrels. Inventories are still -1.5 million barrels (-14% or -0.83 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average but the deficit has narrowed from -3 million barrels (-31% or -1.35 standard deviations) on December 18:

U.S. DURABLE GOODS orders for nondefense capital equipment other than aircraft were just +4.2% higher in February 2023 than in February 2022. But orders are measured in nominal terms so given rapid inflation the real volume is falling. Nominal orders have been flat since the third quarter of 2022 confirming a slowdown in business investment is underway:

Best in Energy – 4 April 2023

OPEC⁺ output cut aims to deter short selling ($BBG)

OPEC⁺  v. central banks in fight over inflation ($BBG)

OPEC⁺  production cut – why now?

OPEC⁺ output cut – why now? ($FT)

U.S. gas production is still increasing

California’s snowpack highest since 1983 ($WSJ)

California’s in-state hydro generation set to rise

U.S. energy consumption projection through 2050

China deploys almost continuous at-sea deterrent

Travel-to-work and the 30 minute average commute

BRENT calendar spreads had already tightened significantly between March 20 and March 31, then tightened further after Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC⁺ announced production cuts on April 2. The six-month spread tightened from a backwardation of $1.13 (59th percentile since 1990) on March 20 to $1.46 (64th percentile) on March 31 and then $3.43 (88th percentile) on April 3. The spreads imply traders were not anticipating a significant oversupply or a large increase in inventories prior to the OPEC⁺ cut. Following the cut, however, traders expect the market to become very tight later in 2023:

Best in Energy – 30 March 2023

U.S. oil and gas expansion stalled in first quarter

China independent refiner in marketing deal

China starts up new refinery for heavy crudes

Ford invests in China/Indonesia nickel project

Asia’s thermal coal imports accelerate in March

California to regulate gasoline refining margins

U.S. LNG delayed by tighter financial conditions

Central banks warn over price-price spiral ($FT)

Europe’s gas storage outlook for 2023/24 ($BBG)

U.S. gas production increased by 4% in 2022

U.S. INTEREST RATE traders expect the central bank to lower its target for the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.50% by December 2023, down from 4.75-5.00% at present. Tighter credit conditions and increased caution among households and businesses following regional bank failures are expected to enforce a slowdown on borrowing and economic growth, bearing down on inflation:

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve fell -11 million bbl in the seven days to March 24, after declining -10 million in the week to March 17:

Best in Energy – 12 December 2022

U.S. official berates shale firms and investors ($FT)¹

U.K. grid orders coal-fired units to start warming up²

France ramps up nuclear generation, easing shortages

China’s shipbuilders move into LNG tanker market

India’s coal mine production rises, with spot auctions

U.S. container trade moves to east coast ports ($WSJ)

Open source tests traditional spying agencies ($WSJ)

U.S./EU diplomacy on price cap reconstructed ($WSJ)

U.S. officials claim fusion power breakthrough ($FT)

Texas crypto-mining boom turns into bust ($BBG)

Thurrock council’s $500 million loss on solar ($BBG)

G7/Russia oil price cap introduced smoothly ($WSJ)

Anti-oil protests and theory of social change ($FT)

¹ When policymakers appeal to “patriotism,” or decry its absence, it usually means they have run out of good arguments. When I hear arguments based on patriotism and its variants, I am instinctively suspicious about the speaker’s motivations, and try to work out how someone is trying to mislead or distract attention from their own failures.

² Coal-fired units need roughly four hours to reach full generation from a warm start and 10-12 hours from a cold start. The grid’s instruction to start warming up ensures the two massive coal-fired units at Drax will be available to help meet electricity consumption during the evening peak on December 12. Before privatisation of the U.K. electricity industry, the state-owned Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) would often keep at least one coal-fired power station warmed up but not generating so it could be brought into service at relatively short notice. Long ramping times for coal-fired units, and the enormous quantity of fuel burned before commercial generation starts, are one reason gas-fired units are more efficient and have largely supplanted them.

CHINA’s semiconductor (integrated circuits) trade – export earnings have grown rapidly, but the cost of imports has risen even faster, so the country’s trade balance has become increasingly adverse:

Best in Energy – 30 November 2022

Guangzhou and other cities see more protests, arrests

France says most energy use reduction due to weather

Europe accelerates deployment of domestic heat pumps

(see also IEA report on future of heat pumps)

Europe increases LNG imports from Russia ($BBG)

EU struggles to agree caps on oil and gas prices ($FT)

Europe’s energy price controls cost €700 billion ($BBG)

Los Angeles port loses cargo share ($BBG)

CHINA’s official Xinhua news agency and other government-run sites are running multiple stories and commentaries emphasising epidemic controls must be applied with “softness”, “greater precision”, ensuring daily life and healthcare continues.  There has been a marked change of tone from the previous military-themed rhetoric and analogies to battling the epidemic, with greater focus on resuming as much normality as possible. Like other governments facing widespread social unrest, China appears to be pursuing a mixed strategy of rolling up protestors, intensifying street policing, while trying to make selective concessions to keep the majority of the population in line by relaxing epidemic controls to reduce their social and economic costs.

BRENT’s calendar spreads for the first part of 2023 have slumped from a steep backwardation at the start of November close to contango as the end of the month nears. The nearest to deliver January-February spread is no longer a useful indicator as the January contract nears expiry and there is insufficient liquidity to make the price representative. But the more active February-March and March-April spreads are now trading close to flat from backwardations of around $1.50 per barrel at the start of the month.

Refiners and traders seem to have accelerated purchases ahead of the introduction of the planned G7 price cap on Russia’s crude exports from early next month to protect themselves against any possible disruption. Concern about the impact likely drove up prices and spreads in September and October.

But the cap itself now appears likely to be set at a relatively high level with relaxed enforcement, at least initially. The result is a marked softening in the market. At the same time, the business cycle continues to weaken across most of Europe and Asia, dampening crude demand. All of this is weighing on prices and spreads for nearby futures contracts with deliveries in early 2023:

Best in Energy – 23 November 2022

[MUST READ] U.S. Treasury publishes regulations for Russia price cap

Vitol chief says price cap will divert flow to small traders

Iran’s leaders struggle to reach out to moderates ($WSJ)

South California vessel queue dissipates  ($WSJ)

China’s coronavirus controls are multiplying

China’s renewable generation hits record high

U.S./Canada gas flows support winter reliability

Europe’s business confidence slumps ($FT)

Selective self-deception is an important leadership skill, especially in politics and diplomacy, but sometimes leaders say things they must know to be untrue, and I’m reminded of the exchange between Alice and the White Queen in Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass”:

“I can’t believe that!” said Alice.

“Can’t you?” the Queen said in a pitying tone. “Try again: draw a long breath, and shut your eyes.”

Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.”

“I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

BRENT’s front-month futures price is trading close to the average since the start of the century once adjusted for inflation. The current price of around $87 per barrel is in the 54th percentile for all months since 2010 and the 47th percentile for all months since 2000:

Best in Energy – 16 November 2022

India’s refiners prepare for price cap from early December

China’s refiners request state aid on Russian crude ($BBG)

Europe’s energy crisis and supply security lessons ($BBG)

U.K. households and the increase in energy debts ($BBG) ¹

California ports report drop in container volumes ($WSJ)

Freeport LNG – root cause report on explosion

¹ Food and energy shortages have always been about prices and affordability rather than physical supplies and availability. Higher-income and wealthier households will always find ways to put food on the table and heat their homes, it is lower-income and poorer households that lack financial resources that are unable to cope and hit hardest (“Corn supply of ancient Rome”, Rickman, 1980).

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA’s ports are experiencing a sharp drop in container traffic reflecting contentious labour negotiations and the threat of a strike as well as the slowdown in global merchandise trade and efforts by U.S. manufacturers and distributors to cut excess inventories. Combined container traffic through the neighbouring ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach was just 0.84 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, down from 1.07 million TEUs in the same month in 2021, and the lowest for the time of year since the recession of 2009: