Best in Energy – 30 January 2023

India requests coal-fired generators stay in service

India plans to order maximum coal-fired generation

Jet fuel prices surge on post-pandemic consumption

Asia’s seaborne coal prices slip on plentiful supplies

Russia/Ukraine: which side does time favour? ($WSJ)

BP publishes revised energy outlook through 2050

EU gas price cap sparks plan to shift TTF to London

Israel/Iran drone attack ($WSJ)

EUROPE’s gas futures summer-winter calendar spread for July 2023 to January 2024 has slumped into an increasingly wide contango as traders anticipate a record carryover over inventories from winter 2022/23 which will leave the storage system short on space.  Lower gas prices in summer 2023 will encourage more consumption by power generators and major industrial users. Higher prices may still be needed to restrain consumption during the peak of next winter:

U.S. OIL DRILLING has started to slow in response to the fall in prices since the middle of 2022. The number of rigs drilling for oil was just 609 on January 27 down from a cyclical high of 627 on December 2:

Best in Energy – 5 December 2022

EU sets price cap for Russia crude at $60

(see legal text of EU price cap regulation)

Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers ($FT)

EU sets oil price cap above market ($BBG)

EU cuts gas consumption by 25% ($FT)

U.S. shale production runs into constraints

Saudi/China summit and policy priorities

India’s capital hit by severe winter smog

North Carolina substations attacked ($WSJ)

Japan plans strategic LNG purchasing ($WSJ)

U.S./EU compete to offer green subsidies ($FT)

BP plans big expansion of hydrogen production

U.S. GAS inventories fell faster than the seasonal average in the second half of November. Working gas stocks in underground storage were -178 billion cubic feet (-4.9%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average on November 25 compared with a deficit of -97 bcf (-2.5%) on November 11:

Best in Energy – 29 November 2022

Europe LNG import capacity to rise by +34% by 2024

EU continues negotiations on oil price cap

BP evaluates future of statistical review

UN climate targets start to stretch to +1.7°C ($WSJ)

U.K. energy crisis hits poorer households hard ($FT)

Europe’s electricity networks brace for winter ($FT)

CHINA was historically a collection of macro-regional economies, with strong transport and commercial links within each region, but much weaker links between regions. The country’s rapid industrialisation and urbanisation since reform and opening in 1978-1980 has led to much more integration at national level, but regionalism remains persistent.

The first map, showing ten macro regions in 1893, is taken from “The Structure of Chinese History”, a presidential address given by Skinner to the U.S. Association of Asian Studies in 1984. The second map, showing nine regions, consolidating the Gan Yangtze region into the Middle Yangtze, is taken from “Evolving core-periphery interactions in a rapidly expanding urban landscape”, Ye et al., 2004. The final set of three maps is taken from the government’s most recent Five-Year Plan (2021):