U.S. SERVICESPRICES were rising at an annualised rate of +10.1% between August and September and were +7.4% higher than a year earlier, a sign inflation is proving persistent even as some energy and commodity prices have eased:
U.S. INTEREST RATE traders expect the central bank to increase its target federal funds rate to 4.75-5.00% by April 2023 up from just 3.00-3.25% at present as they try to bring inflation back under control:
U.S. DISTILLATE fuel oil shortages are worsening. Inventories fell -5 million bbl to just 106 million bbl last week and are now at the lowest level for the time of year for more than 40 years:
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U.S. PETROLEUM inventories depleted by -9 million bbl in the week to July 22, with declines in commercial crude (-5 million), gasoline (-3 million), and distillate fuel oil (-1 million) as well as a drawdown in the SPR (-6 million), partially offset by increases in propane (+3 million) and other oils (+3 million). Petroleum inventories have depleted in 80 of the last 108 weeks by a total of -438 million bbl since the start of July 2020. Total stocks are at the lowest seasonal level since 2008 and show no signs of rebuilding:
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EUROPEAN manufacturers are on the leading edge of a recession. Preliminary readings show the eurozone purchasing managers’ index has slipped to 52.0 (47th percentile) down from 54.6 (65th percentile) in May and a record 63.4 in the same month a year ago:
U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLIED averaged 8.86 million b/d in March 2022 compared with 9.18 million b/d in March 2019 (-328,000 b/d, -3.6%).
U.S DISTILLATE SUPPLIED averaged 4.16 million b/d in March compared with 4.18 million b/d in March 2019 (-23,000 b/d, -0.5%).
The differential recovery in distillate and gasoline consumption after the pandemic helps explain the relative shortage of diesel, as well as jet fuel, and why mid-distillate crack spreads and prices have been pulling the whole petroleum complex higher:
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U.S. PETROLEUM inventories increased by +4 million bbl to 1,685 million bbl last week. The one-week increase was the largest so far this year. But stocks are still at the lowest seasonal level since 2008: