Tag: Bangladesh

Best in Energy – 21 April 2023

[MUST READ] U.S./China diplomacy (U.S. Treasury)

U.S./China systemic competition and guardrails (FT)

Chile’s plan to nationalise lithium industry (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia’s non-alignment policy (Foreign Policy)

Bangladesh hit by heatwave and power cuts (Reuters)

China’s state-owned refiners buy Russia oil (Reuters)

Northeast Asia’s rise in floating LNG stocks (Reuters)

U.S. wind turbines: rollout and supply chain (Reuters)

China likely to issue more oil export quotas (Reuters)

U.S. insurers cancel cover for tanker firm (Bloomberg)

Mexico’s petroleum production stabilises (EIA)

EUROZONE manufacturers have reported a widespread decline in business activity this month. Preliminary results from the purchasing managers survey show the composite activity indicator slipping to 45.5 (8th percentile for all months since 2006) in April down from 47.1 (17th percentile) in March and 55.5 (76th percentile) a year ago. Eurozone manufacturers are now unambiguously in recession as they struggle with high energy prices, rising interest rates, excess inventories and heightened caution from household and business buyers:

NORTHEAST ASIA’s LNG prices continue to fall amid plentiful inventories in both North Asia and Europe after a mild winter at both ends of Eurasia. Futures prices for LNG to be delivered in July 2023 have fallen below $13 per million British thermal units, the lowest for 15 months since January 2022, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

Best in Energy – 17 April 2023

Saudi Aramco shares used as collateral ($FT)

U.S. LNG projects struggle with finance ($FT)

White House staff in Saudi Arabia discussions

Global diesel prices signal slowdown ($BBG)

Bangladesh/Russia to settle payment in yuan

U.K. critical minerals – prospectivity analysis

China’s long-distance hydrogen pipelines

U.S. interest rate rises and soft landings

(see also underlying research paper)

China/Myanmar ocean outpost? ($WSJ)

U.S. OIL RIG count fell by -2 over the seven days ending on April 14 and is down by a total of -39 (-6%) from its peak in early December as exploration and production firms have trimmed activity in response to lower prices. The number of active rigs has fallen to the lowest level for ten months since June 2022:

Best in Energy – 3 March 2023

China’s abandonment of coronavirus suppression

China predicts rise in gas consumption

Debt relief in return for climate policies

U.S. interstate gas pipeline construction

U.K. auto sector’s future in doubt ($FT)

Bangladesh tenders for more LNG

Interest rate traders probe Fed reactions

NORTH INDIA has experienced above-normal seasonal temperatures since early February, driving an increase in air-conditioning and refrigeration demand and boosting electricity consumption to a record level. Temperatures in New Delhi’s Palam suburb have been above the long-term seasonal average for 18 out of 22 days since February 9:

U.S. GAS INVENTORIES are depleting much more slowly than normal for the time of year. As a result, inventories were +209 billion cubic feet (+11% or +0.55 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on February 24 up from a deficit of -427 billion cubic feet (-13% or -1.52 standard deviations) on September 9, 2022:

Best in Energy – 20 February 2023

Freeport LNG’s poor safety culture ($FT) ¹

Asia’s diesel margins fall to 11-month low

IEA chief warns of gas shortage next winter

Pakistan/Bangladesh hit by expensive LNG

China becomes major LNG reseller ($BBG)

CFTC reports still disrupted by cyber attack

U.S. construction worker shortages ($FT)

Semiconductor prices fall by a third ($BBG)

China/Russia diplomatic ties deepen ($WSJ)

U.S./China espionage history review ($FT)

¹ Freeport LNG suffered a catastrophic failure after multiple safety systems failed and personnel ignored warning signs and lost situational awareness about the state of the plant. The resulting explosion is a classic example of what James Reason called an “organisational accident” – multiple systems should have prevented an incident but they were allowed to erode because of a poor internal safety culture leading to a rapid increase in risk (“Managing the risks of organisational accidents”, Reason, 1997).

Reason’s book is one of the best I have read on any topic, offering powerful insights in an engaging and accessible way. He provides a general framework for understanding why many catastrophic industrial and transportation failures happen. Everyone operating critical systems and machinery should be required to read it as part of their training. I can strongly recommend it to everyone else who is interested in safety, reliability and resilience systems.

U.S. OIL AND GAS drilling rates have stalled in response to the slump in prices since the third quarter of 2022. There has been no net increase in the number of active rigs (760) for the last 31 weeks:

Best in Energy – 7 February 2023

Bangladesh will buy more LNG if prices fall further

Russia’s oil and gas export earnings have slumped

U.K. mild winter cuts cost of energy bills support

U.K. considers locational pricing for electricity

U.S. aircraft in near collision at Austin ($WSJ)

Shadow tanker fleet is growing rapidly ($FT)

Remote work and commute time saved ($BBG)

U.K. homes hesitate to install heat pumps ($FT)

Best in Energy – 5 October 2022

I want to feature a wider range of high-quality sources in Best in Energy. If you publish an academic research paper related to energy, in its broadest sense, and there is an open-access version, I would love to hear about it so I can consider highlighting it and helping it reach a broader audience. Please send a link to john@jkempenergy.com. For the avoidance of doubt, I do not want to receive press releases, public relations pitches or offers of interviews to this email address.

[MUST READ] Critical infrastructure protection ($BBG)

Germany plans more financial help for gas importers

Nord Stream sites off limits as authorities investigate

U.S. trade oil groups warn against banning exports

Europe accelerates deployment of electric vehicles

Bangladesh hit by widespread electricity blackout

U.S./Saudi relations strained by oil policy ($FT)

Iran’s social unrest is broadening ($WSJ)

EU28 GAS STOCKS were +158 TWh (+19%) higher on October 3 than on the same date in 2021, after one of the largest inventory accumulations on record this summer:

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Best in Energy – 8 August 2022

Russia oil discounts narrow on China/India demand

Germany’s river freight restricted by low water level

Bangladesh explores rotating factory closure ($BBG)

Asia’s emissions market prices are still low ($BBG)

China’s navy and air force practices Taiwan blockade

China forecasts flooding in major coal areas (trans.)

U.S. shale producers focus on higher oil prices ($FT)

U.S./China navy competition and Northern Sea Route

EUROPEAN GAS OIL calendar spreads between December 2022 and December 2023 have fallen into a backwardation of less than $11 per barrel from almost $33 in mid-June, as traders anticipate the onset of a recession depressing consumption:

JAPAN LNG STOCKS at the end of May had risen to 2.36 million tonnes, the highest for the time of year for at least seven years, as the country’s utilities accumulate inventories to protect against possible supply disruptions in winter 2022/23:

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Best in Energy – 1 August 2022

OPEC says Russia is essential to success of OPEC+

Lyondell plans to repurpose Houston oil refinery

New England solar reshapes electricity load curve

EU/UK ease sanctions on Russian oil trade ($FT)

U.S. threatens to sanction Iran oil trading ($WSJ)

Bangladesh sees LNG shortage until 2026 ($BBG)

China’s leaders recommit to zero-covid (trans.)

Australia explores controls on LNG exports

U.S. energy systems hit by shortages ($WSJ)

Iraq’s political crisis is intensifying ($WSJ)

CHINA’s manufacturers reported a significant contraction in activity last month with the composite purchasing managers’ index falling to 49.0 in July (2nd percentile for all months since 2011) down from 50.2 in June (33rd percentile). Repeated lockdowns are disrupting supply chains and economic activity:

U.S. GAS production was up +4.2% in May compared with the same month a year earlier, and up +3.1% in the three months March-May compared with the same period in 2021:

U.S. CRUDE OIL production fell -57,000 b/d in May compared with April as lower output from the Gulf of Mexico (-157,000  b/d) more than offset increases from the onshore Lower 48 (+95,000 b/d) and Alaska (+5,000 b/d). Onshore L48 output was up by just +468,000 b/d in March-May compared with the same period a year earlier:

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Best in Energy – 20 July 2022

EU asks member countries to cut gas consumption

EU countries most vulnerable to Russian gas cut off

(see also IMF working paper on gas shut off impact)

EU/Russia sanctions eased on food-related exports

Electric-vehicle charger market is growing rapidly

Bangladesh to start rationing electricity and gasoline

China boosts oil imports from Russia at Saudi expense

LONDON’s brief but exceptional heatwave has already ended, but 24-hour temperatures on both July 18 (27.3°C) and July 19 (27.4°C) were more than +8°C above the long-term seasonal average, straining transportation infrastructure and the electrical network.

In a normal year, London temperatures peak between July 20 and August 5, the result of seasonal lag. But weather conditions this year coincided with and compounded the normal seasonal peak pushing daily temperatures far above normal. Temperatures on both days were 2.2-2.6 standard deviations above the 2013-2021 average:

U.S REAL AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS were down by almost -4.5% in June 2022 compared with June 2021, as inflation outstripped wage increases, underscoring the intensity of the squeeze on incomes and spending power:

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