Best in Energy – 18 May 2022

EU cannot be a green island in a dirty world ($FT)

Oil consumption and moderate recessions ($BBG)

U.S./EU examine Russia oil embargo + tariff plan

U.K. inflation accelerates to 9% fastest since 1982

China’s LNG imports set to rise from August ($BBG)

U.K. explores extensions for coal and nuclear ($BBG)

Texas electricity supply hit by congestion on grid

German refinery at risk from Russian oil ban ($BBG)

Austria tries to encourage industry to store gas

U.K. orders competition probe into fuel retailing

U.S. MANUFACTURING output in the three months Feb-Apr was almost 6% higher than in the same period a year earlier, showing momentum in the business cycle but also why supply chains are struggling to cope and prices are escalating rapidly. Rapid growth in manufacturing explains why diesel is short supply and prices are escalating:

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Best in Energy – 29 April 2022

EU regulators defend electricity market design

India explores purchase of Russian oil assets

EU LNG imports running at full capacity ($BBG)

China admits epidemic supply disruption (trans.)

EU struggles with payment for Russian gas

Austria’s payment for Russian gas ($BBG)

EU options for sanctioning Russian oil ($WSJ)

South Asia’s fuel-oil power generation ($BBG)

U.S. REAL FINAL SALES to private domestic purchasers (FSPDP) increased at an annualised rate of 3.7% in the first quarter, accelerating from 2.6% in the fourth quarter, according to advance estimates published on April 28.

Real FSPDP excludes the effect of foreign trade as well as the temporary impact of changes in government spending and inventory accumulation and depletion, so is the most useful measure of underlying spending by households and businesses. The economy exhibited strong momentum in the first three months of the year.

But headline real gross domestic product shrank at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the first quarter as a result of negative effects from foreign trade (-3.2 percentage points), inventory accumulation (-0.8 percentage points) and slower government spending (-0.5 percentage points):

U.S. S&P 500 equity index has risen just 2.5% over the last twelve months; the slow increase is consistent with an end-of-cycle recession or mid-cycle slowdown:

U.S. CONSUMERS were the most negative about the government’s economic policy in March for seven years – with levels of disapproval consistent with recessions and mid-cycle slowdowns in the past:

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