Best in Energy – 25 May 2023

U.S. LNG exports and impact on domestic prices (EIA)

OPEC⁺ expected to leave output unchanged (Bloomberg)

Greenhouse effect’s intellectual history (Conversation)

Mining as limiting factor for energy transition (Reuters)

Asia coal imports rebound in 2023 (Reuters)

China/Russia gas pipeline negotiations (FT)

U.S. airlines report more near-misses (WSJ)

U.S./China cyber-espionage (Reuters)

(see also joint statement by Five Eyes)

U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES including the strategic reserve depleted by -12 million barrels in the seven days ending on May 19 to the lowest seasonal level since 2004. There was a major drawdown in commercial crude stocks (-12 million barrels) with smaller draws in gasoline (-2 million) and distillate fuel oil (-0.5 million) but a small build in jet fuel (+1 million). Commercial crude stocks are in line with the prior ten-year seasonal average (+0.01 standard deviations) but there are substantial deficits in gasoline (-1.20 standard deviations) and distillates (-1.45 standard deviations):

Best in Energy – 18 April 2023

Global economic fragmentation and prices (ECB)

Tin prices surge after Myanmar warning (Reuters)

Asia’s oil refining margins are shrinking (Reuters)

California gas connections ban overruled (Reuters)

Russia’s plan for more oil storage (Reuters)

Russia fuel increasingly traded in Gulf (WSJ)

Russia oil sanctions evasion warning (OFAC)

European airlines report strong demand (FT)

U.S. directed-energy weapons systems (GAO)

Gas market quarterly outlook (Oxford Institute)

SINGAPORE’s middle distillate inventories have accumulated since hitting a cyclical low in late November and early December. Stocks are still -2.2 million barrels (-20% or -1.28 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average but the deficit has narrowed from -3.1 million barrels (-31% or -1.35 standard deviations) on December 18:

Best in Energy – 18 January 2023

Europe’s gas supply gets lucky with warm winter ($BBG)

IEA forecasts global oil use to rise +1.9 million b/d

France electric grid cites improved reserve margin

Texas needs more progress on electricity reliability

Europe’s coal prices slump in competition with gas

U.S. airlines report strong passenger demand ($FT)

LONDON’s Heathrow airport handled 109,151 metric tonnes of air cargo in December 2022 down by -14% compared with 127,188 metric tonnes in December 2021. Air freight volumes are slackening as the global manufacturing sector enters a downturn, with the United Kingdom one of the hardest-hit economies:

Best in Energy – 27 June 2022

Russia/EU clash over routine gas pipeline maintenance

EdF/Engie/Total call for immediate energy conservation

U.S. shale producers turn to refracturing existing oil wells

Germany’s chemicals firms contemplate shutdown ($WSJ)

Bank for International Settlements annual economy review

Southwest Airlines’ fuel hedging ($FT)

U.S. OIL AND GAS rig count rose +13 to 753 last week as higher prices spur exploration and production companies to contract more drilling teams. The number of active rigs has climbed by +509 from the cyclical low in August 2020 and is only -40 below the pre-pandemic level in March 2020. The number of active oil rigs is still -88 below the pre-pandemic level but gas rigs are already +48 above the March 2020 level.

Oil and gas drilling is exhibiting a fairly normal cyclical recovery, though it is unfolding slower than other recent recoveries because some of the larger exploration and production companies have been constraining drilling and production programmes to keep prices high and boost returns to shareholders:

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