Best in Energy – 20 July 2022

EU asks member countries to cut gas consumption

EU countries most vulnerable to Russian gas cut off

(see also IMF working paper on gas shut off impact)

EU/Russia sanctions eased on food-related exports

Electric-vehicle charger market is growing rapidly

Bangladesh to start rationing electricity and gasoline

China boosts oil imports from Russia at Saudi expense

LONDON’s brief but exceptional heatwave has already ended, but 24-hour temperatures on both July 18 (27.3°C) and July 19 (27.4°C) were more than +8°C above the long-term seasonal average, straining transportation infrastructure and the electrical network.

In a normal year, London temperatures peak between July 20 and August 5, the result of seasonal lag. But weather conditions this year coincided with and compounded the normal seasonal peak pushing daily temperatures far above normal. Temperatures on both days were 2.2-2.6 standard deviations above the 2013-2021 average:

U.S REAL AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS were down by almost -4.5% in June 2022 compared with June 2021, as inflation outstripped wage increases, underscoring the intensity of the squeeze on incomes and spending power:

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Globalisation, commodity prices and inflation

Research note originally published in February 2008 when I was working as a market analyst at Sempra Metals. The commodity markets were in the final stages of the super-cycle (which peaked in July 2008) and early stages of a U.S. recession (activity had actually peaked in Dec 2007 but the recession was not yet recognised by most commentators or announced by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research until Dec 2008). The note is interesting in retrospect as an example of “real time” analysis around a turning point in the economy and commodity markets:

Best in Energy – 31 March 2022

White House briefs on 180 million bbl oil release

U.S./IEA oil releases have had limited impact

Sri Lanka runs out of currency to buy fuel

U.K. horticulture hit by surging gas prices

Germany’s industrial base hit by energy crisis

India’s power generation shortages worsen

Euronav tanker firm suspends Russian business

U.S. hydro output hit by western drought

White House struggles to balance goals ($WSJ)

U.S. PETROLEUM stocks outside the strategic petroleum reserve rose by +2 million bbl to 1,139 million bbl last week. But inventories are -107 million bbl (-9%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average. Stocks have declined in 65 of the last 91 weeks by a total of -323 million bbl since the start of July 2020:

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