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EUROPE’s summer-winter gas futures calendar spread between July 2023 and January 2024 has slumped into a contango of more than €17 per megawatt-hour down from €4 on December 30 and a backwardation of €3 at the start of last winter on October 3. Storage is expected to become full well before the end of the traditional refill season in late October or early November. Nearby futures prices are falling to encourage more consumption this summer and divert cargoes to price-sensitive buyers in Asia. But prices in the middle of next winter are still expected to be high given limits on the total amount of gas that can be stored and released and the consequent need for demand restraint in December 2023 and January 2024:
NORTHWEST EUROPE has experienced a slightly colder-than-normal start to the gas refill season, limiting the volume added to storage and forestalling a sharper fall in futures prices and deeper contango. Average daily temperatures at Frankfurt in Germany have been -0.6°C below the long-term seasonal average so far in April:
JKempEnergy.com 