Best in Energy – 4 November 2022

G7⁺ agree to set fixed price cap for Russia oil exports ¹

Netherlands regulator supports TTF gas benchmark

Global coal consumption set for new record ($BBG)

U.S. tech firms enter downturn with layoffs ($WSJ)

Europe’s floating LNG storage queue ($FT)

¹ A fixed price cap that will be reviewed regularly in the light of market conditions sounds a lot like creating an “Organization of Petroleum Importing Countries” (OPIC) with all the resulting problems of information collection, analysis, forecasting and decision-making. OPEC has struggled to be an effective market manager; there is no reason to think OPIC will be any more successful.

Some operational and policy questions for OPIC:

  • How will the organisation estimate current production and consumption?
  • How will the organisation forecast future production, consumption, inventories and prices?
  • Will OPIC seek input from oil traders and refiners?
  • Will OPIC hold regular meetings to decide policy?
  • How often will the organisation review and revise the price cap?
  • Will OPIC coordinate with OPEC and OPEC⁺ ?
  • What is the relationship between OPIC and the IEA?
  • How will OPIC respond if Russia cuts production and exports?
  • Will the U.S./IEA release more crude and product stocks to counter any interruption of Russia’s oil exports?
  • Will G7⁺ set policy unilaterally or will it take into account the interests of third-country importers (e.g. China and India)?

U.S. GAS INVENTORIES rose by +107 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the week to October 28. Inventories have increased by a total of +2,119 bcf since the start of April, the fastest seasonal rise since 2019 and before that 2015. Stocks are still -203 bcf (-5%) below the pre-pandemic average for 2015-2019 but the deficit has narrowed from -401 bcf (-14%) since mid-August:

Published by

John Kemp

Energy analyst, public policy specialist, amateur historian