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EUROPE’s GAS INVENTORIES are well above the seasonal average and accumulating at a record or near-record rate as the region attempts to maximise its seasonal storage ahead of the winter and a possible disruption to gas imports from Russia.
- EU28 gas inventories have risen to 823 TWh up from a post-winter low of 291 TWh on March 19.
- Stocks are +62 TWh above the prior ten-year seasonal average (+8% or +0.48 standard deviations).
- The increase in inventories to date from the post-winter low (+532 TWh) is the largest for at least ten years.
- Inventories accumulated at an average rate of 6 TWh per day over the seven days to August 10, among the fastest seasonal increases in the last decade.
- Inventories are on course to reach 995 TWh by the end of the refill season (with a likely range of 915-1069 TWh).
- Expected post-summer stocks are significantly higher than the 878 TWh anticipated at the start of the refill season on April 1 (710-1066 TWh).
- Expected post-summer inventories have steadily risen as operators have filled storage irrespective of prices.
Expected post-summer stocks are +63 TWh (+7%) above the prior ten-year average (932 TWh).
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