Globalisation, commodity prices and inflation

Research note originally published in February 2008 when I was working as a market analyst at Sempra Metals. The commodity markets were in the final stages of the super-cycle (which peaked in July 2008) and early stages of a U.S. recession (activity had actually peaked in Dec 2007 but the recession was not yet recognised by most commentators or announced by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research until Dec 2008). The note is interesting in retrospect as an example of “real time” analysis around a turning point in the economy and commodity markets: