Best in Energy – 5 May 2022

EU/Russia petroleum imports

EU economy has stalled ($BBG)

India’s power shortages ($BBG)

India’s coal transport challenge

BRENT spot prices and calendar spreads are climbing as traders anticipate an EU embargo will disrupt Russia’s oil production and reduce supplies available globally. Brent’s six-month calendar spread is trading in a backwardation of more than $10 per barrel again, notwithstanding the ongoing release of emergency stocks by the United States and other members of the IEA. Brent futures for deliveries in Dec 2022, when the release will have been completed, are trading at $102, not far below the peak of $104 in early March during the initial shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

U.S. PETROLEUM inventories including the strategic petroleum reserve fell by -0.5 million bbl to 1,696 million bbl last week. Distillate stocks fell -2 million bbl to 105 million bbl. Global consumption is running consistently faster than production causing inventory depletion and upward pressure on prices:

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Published by

John Kemp

Energy analyst, public policy specialist, amateur historian